After a 2-0 week, Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is trending up — and the Cats can add to it in a big way in the final week of the regular season.
Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt brought Kentucky’s record in Quad 1 games to 6-8, while the win over South Carolina took the Quad 2 record to 4-2. Both of Kentucky’s games this week, at Texas A&M and vs. Florida, are in Quad 1. If you break it down even further, the game at College Station is in Quad 1B, while the finale vs. Florida is in Quad 1A, the tippy-top of the resume. Kentucky is 3-7 in Quad 1A games so far this season, with wins vs. Arkansas and Tennessee on the road and St. John’s in the CBS Sports Classic. If Kentucky can upset Florida at Rupp on Saturday, the Cats will have a quartet of impressive wins to help their case come Selection Sunday.
Something else to monitor on Kentucky’s team sheet: Georgia is No. 31 in the NET Rankings. If the Bulldogs climb into the top 30, the loss to them in Rupp Arena will move from Quad 2 to Quad 1. That would be a good thing.
Kentucky is No. 27 in the NET, but a more important metric to keep an eye on is WAB (Wins Above Bubble), which measures how many wins a team has against its schedule relative to how an average bubble team would fare against the same schedule. Logically, the Cats’ WAB is higher after a 2-0 week. Last Monday, Kentucky was No. 27 in WAB, with 2.78 wins above the bubble. Today, they are No. 24, at 3.38. If you go by BartTorvik’s estimates, the Cats can add almost 1.5 to that this week, 0.70 at Texas A&M, and 0.78 vs. Florida at Rupp.
Let’s break down Kentucky’s team sheet with just 13 days until Selection Sunday.
- WAB: 3.38 (No. 24)
- Quad 1: 6-8 (Games Remaining: 2)
- Quad 1A: 3-7
- Quad 1B: 3-1
- Quad 2: 4-2 (Games Remaining: 0)
- Quad 3: 3-0 (Games Remaining: 0)
- Quad 4: 6-0 (Games Remaining: 0)
Quad 1: 6-8
Quad 1A: 3-7
Home 1-15 | Neutral 1-25 | Away 1-40
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | Result |
| 4 | 02/14/2026 | @ Florida | L 83-92 |
| 4 | 03/07/2026 | Florida | |
| 6 | 12/05/2025 | Gonzaga (Nashville) | L 59-94 |
| 11 | 11/18/2025 | Michigan State (Champions Classic) | L 66-83 |
| 16 | 01/03/2026 | @ Alabama | L 74-89 |
| 17 | 11/11/2025 | @ Louisville | L 88-96 |
| 18 | 01/27/2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L 55-80 |
| 19 | 01/31/2026 | @ Arkansas | W 85-77 |
| 20 | 01/17/2026 | @ Tennessee | W 80-78 |
| 22 | 12/20/2025 | St. John’s (CBS Sports Classic) | W 78-66 |
| 38 | 02/21/2026 | @ Auburn | L 74-75 |
Quad 1B: 3-1
Home 16-30 | Neutral 26-50 | Away 41-75
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | Result |
| 18 | 02/28/2026 | Vanderbilt | W 91-77 |
| 20 | 02/07/2026 | Tennessee | W 74-71 |
| 25 | 12/02/2025 | North Carolina | L 64-67 |
| 43 | 03/03/2026 | @ Texas A&M | |
| 70 | 01/14/2026 | @ LSU | W 75-74 |
Quad 2: 4-2
Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | Result |
| 31 | 02/17/2026 | Georgia | L 78-86 |
| 37 | 01/21/2026 | Texas | W 85-80 |
| 41 | 12/13/2025 | Indiana | W 72-60 |
| 53 | 01/07/2026 | Missouri | L 68-73 |
| 62 | 02/04/2026 | Oklahoma | W 94-78 |
| 108 | 02/24/2026 | @ South Carolina | W 72-63 |
Quad 3: 3-0
Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | Result |
| 91 | 01/24/2026 | Ole Miss | W 72-63 |
| 104 | 01/10/2026 | Mississippi State | W 92-68 |
| 155 | 11/07/2025 | Valparaiso | W 107-59 |
Quad 4: 6-0
Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | Result |
| 251 | 11/04/2025 | Nicholls | W 77-51 |
| 285 | 12/23/2025 | Bellarmine | W 99-85 |
| 305 | 11/26/2025 | Tennessee Tech | W 104-54 |
| 325 | 11/14/2025 | Eastern Ill. | W 99-53 |
| 328 | 11/21/2025 | Loyola Maryland | W 88-46 |
| 340 | 12/09/2025 | N.C. Central | W 103-67 |
Team Sheet Notes
— Cusp Watch: As mentioned, Georgia is No. 31 in the NET. If the Bulldogs climb just one spot, the loss to them in Rupp will move up to Quad 1. They host Alabama tomorrow night and finish the regular season at Mississippi State on Saturday.
In bad cusp news, LSU is down to No. 70 in the NET. If the Tigers fall out of the top 75, the win over them in Baton Rouge will fall from Quad 1 to Quad 2. They play at Auburn on Tuesday and host Texas A&M on Saturday.
— Only one team in the country has a harder remaining schedule than Kentucky, according to ESPN’s BPI: Iowa. Kentucky’s entire schedule is the fourth hardest per the NET.
— The Vanderbilt win was a nice boost to Kentucky’s resume; right now, the Cats are trending as a No. 6 seed on Bracket Matrix, at the bottom of the seed line behind St. John’s, Louisville, and BYU. Kentucky is at the top of the No. 6 seed line in CBS Sports’ daily update, ahead of Louisville, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. St. John’s, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Tennessee are on the No. 5 seed line.
We’ve talked about it a lot, but being a No. 6 or No. 7 seed is significantly better than a No. 8 or No. 9 because it means you don’t have a potential matchup vs. the No. 1 seed in the second round. The No. 1 seeds (Duke, Michigan, UConn, Arizona) have separated themselves from the pack this season. Even if Kentucky plays its best basketball, the Cats probably wouldn’t get past the first weekend as a No. 8 or No. 9 seed.
The Road Ahead
Last week was big; this week could be even bigger. Both KenPom and BartTorvik have Kentucky losing to Texas A&M and Florida. The Cats are least likely to pull off the upset vs. the Gators, KenPom giving Kentucky just a 31% chance to win. Losing both won’t hurt Kentucky’s resume much, but even winning one would be big.
A win over Texas A&M would keep Kentucky toward the top of the No. 6 seed line in BartTorvik’s Teamcast. A loss to the Aggies and a win over Florida would make Kentucky the top No. 6 seed. Beat both, and the Cats could climb to the No. 5 seed line, especially with a strong run in the SEC Tournament. Lose both, and Kentucky would be the top No. 7 seed.
Something else to keep in mind: Texas A&M is currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, projected to be a No. 11 seed. The Aggies will be desperate for a win tomorrow night. Great.
Lots still to play for. Here are the final two games, sorted by probability.
| Likely (≥65%) | Toss-Ups (36%–64%) | Unlikely (≤35%) |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 – @ Texas A&M (Away, Quad 1B, 46%, WAB +0.70) | Mar 7 – vs. Florida (Home, Quad 1A, 31%, WAB +0.78) |
Here is a more chronological look:
| Date | Opponent | NET Ranking | Quad | KenPom Prediction (3/2) | WAB Gain (BartTorvik) |
| 03/03/2026 | @ Texas A&M | 43 | Quad 1B | L, 79-78 (46%) | +0.70 |
| 03/07/2026 | Florida | 4 | Quad 1A | L, 80-74 (31%) | +0.78 |