One last SEC road trip for Kentucky Basketball. Tonight, the Wildcats are in College Station, playing Texas A&M to stay in the fight behind Florida in the SEC standings. Kentucky enters the game with some momentum, following a road win at South Carolina this time last week and a ranked win at home on Saturday.
Can the Wildcats stay hot? KenPom predicts a close game against the Aggies, leaning slightly in A&M’s favor by a single point. Here at KSR, the staff has its own thoughts about the matchup and Kentucky’s shot in Reed Arena.
Read our predictions in the PARLOUR Pizza Predictions as we count down to Tuesday night on ESPN 2.
Drew Franklin
Soon, you will be tired of hearing about Bucky Ball. Maybe you already are. Bucky McMillan has the Aggies playing his fun brand of basketball in the old Samford coach’s first season in College Station, which started with a 7-1 SEC record and a first-place spot in the league, but then fell down the standings. Tonight, the Aggies play one last home game of Bucky Ball in McMillan’s debut year, looking for only a third win since January.
As I see it, A&M will have to wait longer for its next win, as Kentucky is set up to finish the year strong. Kentucky’s win over Vanderbilt injected confidence back into the Wildcats, a team that has already played well on the road many times this year. It’ll be UK’s last true road test of the season, and they’ll pass it with big games from the “AOC” backcourt.
Score: Kentucky 79, Texas A&M 75
Zack Geoghegan
Kentucky is catching Texas A&M at a good time. The Aggies are 2-6 after a hot start to the season as tired legs are beginning to seep in. Non-stop full-court defensive pressure and a high-paced offense can do that. Fatigue has been a talking point lately with this Kentucky team, but Texas A&M might be the one trying to will itself across the finish line. Opposing teams are scoring 84.6 points per game against the Aggies over their last eight contests.
Cutting down on turnovers will be important for Kentucky. Don’t let A&M gain some momentum early by picking off easy passes in the backcourt. Turnovers have been an issue for the ‘Cats over the last five games. A&M isn’t exactly a big team, but they will be physical. UK is 5-8 this season with 11 or more turnovers and 14-2 with 10 or fewer. The three-point line will be another key to the game — Texas A&M ranks second in the SEC in three-point attempts per outing (29.3 per game on 35 percent shooting) and first in opponent three-point shooting (just 30.4 percent).
I feel better about Kentucky’s chances in this game after seeing the win over Vanderbilt. I think the ‘Cats got a bit lucky with their three-point defense in that one, but UK still led by double-digits for nearly the entire game. Vandy is a better team than A&M. With this being the first time playing in College Station for most of the Wildcats, they’ll come out with the same energy they did against the Commodores in Rupp en route to another big resume win.
Score: Kentucky 88, Texas A&M 81
Adam Luckett
A big game for both teams has arrived in College Station. This one definitely has a 6 vs. 11 or 7 vs. 10 first day of the NCAA Tournament feel to it. Kentucky and Texas A&M will play in a game where both teams have some unique matchup advantages. This would be a fun series if it was an NBA playoff format.
Bucky Ball means pressing and trapping non-stop. The Aggies will force turnovers. That is alarming for a Kentucky team that ranks 14th in the conference in turnover percentage (16%). Meanwhile, A&M has two huge issues on defenses when they are not forcing turnovers. The Aggies rank sub-200 in two-point field goal percentage and defensive rebound percentage. This team loses the battle in the paint constantly and gives up a ton of extra shots. How do these battles counter? We should probably look to the other side of the ball.
A&M doesn’t get to the free throw line a ton, has been iffy from two in SEC play, and depends heavily on threes to score. This game might just come down to how each team shoots it from deep. A&M is due a big perimeter shooting performance soon after a down couple of weeks. This feels like a spot they could get one in a huge home game.
Kentucky’s positional size advantage will show up at Reed Arena. Otega Oweh could have a huge game as a driver. There are some similarities to Arkansas for the Aggies on the defensive end. I expect Kentucky’s offense to have a similar plan and success. That means pounding the paint and shooting a lot of lay-ups. That could mean a low three-point attempt diet. The difference is A&M will let them fly from deep. This is going to be a shot variance game.
If A&M is cold, Kentucky could run away with a double-digit victory. I’m betting they are not cold. The Aggies pour in 10-plus threes to negate the rebounding losses. Points off turnovers will be the stat everyone looks at after the game but this game will ultimately be won or lost based on what A&M does from deep.
Score: Texas A&M 84, Kentucky 81
Nick Roush
Kentucky has played at Reed Arena eight times since Texas A&M joined the league. Three of those games went to overtime. Kentucky holds a narrow 5-3 advantage over the Aggies at Reed Arena. The margins are tight in this series, and it’s going to take some more heroics from Collin Chandler to get Kentucky over the hump.
A&M and Kentucky aren’t so different. Kentucky won eight of nine games near the start of SEC play; A&M rattled off seven of eight. Kentucky followed it up with a 3-game losing streak; the Aggies lost four in a row. Mark Pope’s desired style of play doesn’t feel too different than Bucky Ball, either.
If A&M is going to get up and down, Kentucky has to make shots. I will not predict that Kentucky will shoot 59% from the field for a second consecutive game. A&M is desperate for a Quad 1 win to add to its resume. After taking a couple of close losses to Texas, Alabama, and Missouri, they finally get over the hump and secure the win at Reed Arena.
Score: Texas A&M 86, Kentucky 80
Tyler Thompson
Here we are again, getting ready for Kentucky to face a team desperate for a win to stay off the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Cats haven’t been good in this spot before, losing to both Georgia and Auburn. That makes tonight a good litmus test for where Kentucky stands in the final week of the regular season. Have the Cats really turned the corner, as Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt suggested, or are we about to hit another dip in the roller coaster? Despite all the evidence to the contrary this season, I’m going with the former.
Texas A&M had plenty of success with Bucky Ball earlier this season before teams started to figure it out. It’s an exhausting and relentless style of play, but Kentucky is pretty good in transition, the best way to break the press. Otega Oweh excels at steals and slams. Collin Chandler is one of the hottest three-point shooters in the league right now, firing with zero hesitation. Kentucky will need both of those guys playing their best basketball tonight, and another big performance from Denzel Aberdeen. Texas A&M excels at forcing turnovers; the Cats can’t get sloppy and let them.
This feels like a game Kentucky could easily drop, coming off a big win against a team that has lost two straight and six of its last eight. Reed Arena will be rowdy for Senior Night; however, I really like what I saw from the Cats on Saturday. I think they steal a win in College Station before riding a freight train of momentum back to Lexington for the season finale vs. No. 5 Florida.
Score: Kentucky 82, Texas A&M 79
Jacob Polacheck
Last week, I made the mistake of picking against Kentucky. UK ended up dominating the Commodores. I’m not making the same mistake.
Kentucky should take care of business against Texas A&M on the road. The trio of Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen, and Collin Chandler has been the key to Kentucky’s success of late. If Kentucky can force some early turnovers, I feel good about the Cats’ chances to win handily. I’m picking Chandler to keep the hot streak going, being game MVP. This is a game Kentucky can’t overlook this close to postseason play, and I don’t expect them to.
Score: Kentucky 85, Texas A&M 73
Jack Pilgrim
Texas A&M started out 7-1 in the league and looked to be a serious SEC contender at No. 1 through January. Then Bucky Ball fell off a cliff with six losses out of the Aggies’ next eight games, dropping them to bubble territory at No. 43 in the NET and No 44 in the WAB with an 8-10 mark in Quad 1 and 2 games, but 11-0 in Quad 3 and 4 opportunities. No bad losses, but not creating enough separation to win the big conference games. This is a big one for A&M, as it would be the best win on the resume — a road blowout at Georgia (No. 30 NET) currently holds that title — and lock in a spot in the NCAA Tournament. They’re desperate, similar to the spots LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia and Auburn were in, riding losing streaks going into their matchups vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats have been far from perfect playing in the Grim Reaper role, splitting those battles, but find themselves in a healthy spot with two straight wins themselves and lineup continuity helping them play their best basketball of the season.
The Aggies play fast and fire up a ton of threes to score a ton of points, pressing more than any team in the country in hopes of winning in transition and capitalizing on mistakes. Denzel Aberdeen has taken care of the basketball individually as the starting point guard, especially in SEC play, but turnovers have been a serious issue for the Wildcats in recent weeks. They rank No. 171 in turnover margin and No. 257 in forced turnovers. Sloppy basketball will lead to a blowout loss in College Station.
Win the track meet and keep cough-ups to a minimum while hitting, say, 10 threes? That plays to another road victory and allows Kentucky to walk into that Senior Day battle vs. Florida with house money, guaranteeing a bye in Nashville, at minimum. I trust the Cats to do it, led by Aberdeen as game MVP — not for his scoring, but his ability to avoid turnovers.
Score: Kentucky 81, Texas A&M 74
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Kentucky vs. Texas A&M: How to Watch, Listen
- Tipoff: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2 (Tom Hart, Jimmy Dykes)
- Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
- AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
- FM: 98.1 WBUL
- Online: iHeart Radio
- Sirius XM: 383
You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.
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