The best conference tournament in college basketball kicks off Wednesday.
We tend to focus on Xavier here. That is, after all, what our reason for existence is. Starting this week, though, college basketball tips over the top of the hill and starts a down hill sprint to the Final Four. It’s worth taking a quick breath here at the start to see exactly what lies ahead of X.
The first thing is the Big East tournament. Before we get too far into this, here’s what the bracket looks like:
The bracket is set. pic.twitter.com/bYsMRdUzAm
— BIG EAST MBB (@BIGEASTMBB) March 9, 2025
Wednesday is when the big conferences really get going. The Big 12 has games on Tuesday because it has, I think, 46 teams in it now. Wednesday, though, everyone joins in. Xavier has, blessedly, avoided the fate of having to play on Wednesday. Instead, Providence tips against Butler at 4p on Peacock and we go from there. DePaul and Georgetown are next, with Seton Hall and Nova finishing the first day.
None of those teams has a realistic chance at an at-large bid. Villanova might have an argument if they make it to the final by beating UConn and Creighton to add two more Q1 wins to their resume, but they still have two ugly Q3 wins and a hilarious hideous Q4 on their resume. Kyle Neptune might be coaching for his job this week, but he probably only saves it if his team wins four games in four days. As previously stated, Seton Hall, Georgetown, DePaul, Providence, and Butler are only dancing if they get the auto bid.
Things get interesting Thursday. The top four teams are in St. John’s could play onto the two line, Creighton, Marquette, and UConn are probably not thrilled with their seeding outlook right now, but they are comfortably in the field. Part of the thrill of the this tournament, though, is that it is such a marquee event that no one is just muddling through. Duke make win the ACC tournament, but the Spectrum Center in Charlotte doesn’t quite hold the same magnetic pull as Madison Square Garden.
Into that cauldron comes Xavier. If the tournament started today the Musketeers would be in. It doesn’t, though. Xavier, and it pains me to say this, probably needs a win. Oklahoma or Georgia is going to pick up a Q1 Wednesday and that solidifies a bid for the winner. Ignore the people whining about Oklahoma’s conference record, it doesn’t matter. If they win that one, they’re in. They’re probably in anyway. North Carolina will also open play on Wednesday. If they pick up another Q1 they’ll also have more than Xavier. The same goes for Ohio State, Indiana, Boise State, UC San Diego (yep), Vanderbilt, West Virginia, San Diego State, Texas, and Nebraska.
That list should make those missed opportunities in the non-con and early conference sting all the more. Xavier doesn’t have bad losses, but they desperately need another big win to point to. Marquette is that chance. It’s a Q1 game that opens the door to another Q1 game. Win one and X can exhale a bit, win two and the Musketeers are within touching distance of just removing all doubt.
The reason that is possible is that the bracket at the top is wide open. Over the last 15 Big East games, St. John’s is the best team. The gap, though, isn’t as big as you might think. Over that stretch the Red Storm are 21st on Bart Torvik. Right behind them in 23rd? Xavier. Creighton is 28th, and UConn is 37th. Marquette has actually been riding early season success. Over their last 15 they are 8-7 and just 44th in overall efficiency.
All of those top five are Q1 games for their opponents. That matters to X, but not really anyone else. St. John’s will get the winner of Butler and Providence. They are 4-0 against those teams, but their combined margin of victory is just 18. Creighton gets DePaul or Georgetown, both of whom they have mauled this year. UConn gets Seton Hall or, far more likely, Villanova. That’s a tricky proposition, because both of their games were close this year.
So Xavier has a chance. They’ve been excellent since mid-January. St. John’s has the nation’s best defense this calendar year and is the favorite, albeit not overwhelmingly. UConn, Creighton, and Marquette are playing for seeding. Villanova needs a figurative miracle. Everyone else is just here to play spoiler or get a literal miracle. Here we go.