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Bubble Watch: Rabbit Out Of The Hat Time Edition

March 14, 2025 by Banners On The Parkway

MLB: MAR 11 Spring Training Mets at Astros
Calling on all (Luis)Angels to aid my Musketeers | Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Are you a Xavier fan hoping to see enough teams torpedo their chances today to get the Muskies in? Same. Here is who to watch.

There is a sense in which things could have gone better from a Xavier perspective yesterday. North Carolina and Texas both won and, probably more relevantly, Xavier lost. Things are still not done for the Musketeers, however. Indiana fell at the first hurdle in the Big Ten tournament, Boise State garnered a margin of victory against SDSU that rendered the triumph a Q2 win, and UConn was on hand to take advantage of Kyle Neptune Kyle Neptune-ing to beat Villanova and make Xavier’s win against them Q1. This isn’t to say the situation is not precarious, bordering on desperate, but it isn’t quite done yet.

VCU vs St. Bonaventure, 11:30 AM, USA

Predictives love the Rams, but they have just 1 Q1 win and a loss here would drop them to 6-6 in the top 2 quads with an ugly Q4 loss against Seton Hall on the resume. The hope is that they either faceplant here, take a Q3 against Loyola Chicago, or take the A-10 auto bid because making the final and losing would still probably be enough. For what it’s worth, they split with the Bonnies this season.

Texas vs Tennessee, 3:30 PM, ESPN

Texas is closing hard on the pack and has played themselves on to 26 brackets on the bracket matrix. Another Q1 would all but do it for them after yesterday’s 2OT win over Texas A&M.

North Carolina vs Duke, 7 PM, ESPN

UNC has won twice at their conference tournament, but such is the state of the ACC that they have really only given themselves an opportunity to get a win that would help them. They still only have 1 Q1 win and a Q3 loss. Winning this one would move them to the right side of the bubble and possibly give them an inside track on the ACC auto bid.

UC San Diego vs UC Santa Barbara, 9 PM, ESPN+

The Tritons have a gawdy 25-6 record and solid metrics (except for the incomprehensibly broken BPI), but they are 3-2 in the top 2 quads and already have 2 Q3 losses. Could they survive a third? If they lost this one, they’ll find out.

Boise St. vs New Mexico, 9:30 PM, CBSSN

The Broncos kept their hopes alive with a win yesterday, but it was only Q2. They still only have 2 Q1 wins, are 7-7 in the top 2 quads, and have a Q3 and a Q4 loss. The metrics like but don’t love them and without another marquee win, it is hard to see how they overcome the resume blemishes.

Filed Under: Xavier

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