Xavier needs to go on an unlikely run to make the NCAA tournament.
We’ve talked for a while now about Xavier’s season being on life support. Ever since they lost three consecutive home games – including two Q3 defeats – in December, they’ve been behind the game in terms of at-large consideration. It’s tough to rally from that kind of hit without stringing wins together, and they just haven’t been able to. Now, with five games left on the calendar, it’s brass tacks time for the home team.
Sitting at 13-13 overall and 7-8 in conference, Xavier hasn’t made a compelling case for themselves thus far. Every permutation of results we’ve suggested is necessary has gotten increasingly desperate, but they’ve all targeted the same outcome: 12 regular season conference wins.
This, then, is the most desperate of them all. With seven Big East wins and five games left, a little quick math tells me that even one more loss leaves twelve wins unattainable.
It’s not going to be easy. In fact, I’d posit that it’s impossible in all but the most literal sense. Xavier’s next game is at Marquette, where the KenPom #13 Golden Eagles have lost once all year. That loss was to a Butler team that held Tyler Kolek to 2/4/8 on 1-13 shooting; he went for a cool 27/7/5 in the return fixture last week. If Xavier does clear that first hurdle, they still have to win at Butler and home to Marquette to keep this crazy train rolling, as well as avoiding catastrophically embarrassing losses against Georgetown and DePaul.
It seems unlikely that X runs the table. Which leaves only the option of winning the Big East Tournament.
To do that, Xavier is going to have to win four consecutive conference games, a feat they haven’t accomplished at any point this season.
Depending on other results, it seems like the most likely outcome for the Muskies is to finish somewhere between 6th and 9th in the league, as the bottom two spots are well and truly sewn up and making it to 5th would likely be the outcome of running the table.
The real key is to finish 6th or 7th. The winner of the 8/9 game has about 17 hours turnaround before facing a fresh and presumably healthy UConn team. That seems like a recipe for disaster for a team with 0 viable big men.
In fact, these all seem like recipes for disaster. The reality is that the is pretty much still alive in name only. A team capable of playing its way out of this mess wouldn’t have played it’s way into it in the first place. Where there’s life, there’s something akin to hope though. As long as Xavier is still playing, I’m going to be planted in front of my TV, hoping for a miracle.
It’s not like I’m in any rush to get to baseball season so I can watch the Guards go 79-83.