The most wonderful time of the year isn’t always easy on the heart.
This is the most wonderful time of the year. Christmas is a lot of fun, especially with kids old enough to enjoy it, and there is a lot to be said for hot cocoa, lights, and a fresh live tree in the living room. It doesn’t hold a candle to March. Selection Sunday is college basketball Christmas. Or maybe opening Thursday is. Or maybe it’s that first day of the major conference tournaments when it’s just elimination games from before noon until after midnight. If you have even a passing attachment to college ball, it’s brilliant.
But my goodness can it be stressful. Xavier started this season well, going 6-0 and absolutely mullering a decent South Carolina team. Over the next ten games the Musketeers systematically set about burning it all down. They went 3-7 in that stretch, and the best team they beat was Seton Hall.
They have lost three times since then. They have beaten Marquette, UConn, Nova, and Creighton. They’re on a five game winner right now with just two games to go. And that’s the tension of March. Should Xavier beat Butler? Yes. Butler’s best Big East win is Georgetown at home. They got whacked by Providence and just lost to Nova by 10. After that comes Providence at home. The Friars are down Bryce Hopkins and have won once in February and March. That one is at home in front of the manic Cintas crowd.
And yet… You don’t really feel comfortable with either, do you? Somewhere in the recesses of your brain is the idea that something stupid could happen in that weird barn in Indiana. And Providence’s one win in the last month plus? A 13 point hammering of Villanova. Don’t try to deny that somewhere deep in your lizard brain lurks the fear that somehow that could happen to Xavier.
And that is what makes March so stressful. At Christmas I guess you could be worried that people won’t like your gifts, but that’s on you. Now, the merriment of the season comes down to two games that Xavier should absolutely win. And yet, they may not. It is simultaneously fun and horrifying. Bart Torvik gives Xavier a 53% and then 86% chance of winning those games.
All they have to do is get them and Selection Sunday will be a joyous wait to see where the ghost of Greg Gumbel places us. Anything else and the stress just ramps up all the more. It’s the most wonderful time of the year.