The Musketeers had played themselves back into contention. Then, in 12 minutes, they played themselves right back out
There were some bravura performances in Philadelphia yesterday. Jalen Hurts was excellent, Cooper Dejean scored a touchdown on his birthday, and Kendrick Lamar was incandescent in what was probably the best Super Bowl halftime show in multiple decades. For a day, the city was the center of the sporting universe and Xavier was in the middle of it.
Xavier, however, did not strike a chord. About six hours before K Dot put the finishing touches on his year long evisceration of Drake, Xavier wrote themselves out of the script. The Musketeers led by six with under 13 to play. They were on their way to winning the vital Q1 game that they desperately needed. Dante Maddox was taking his turn as the hero with his special take on the game of basketball, Marcus Foster and Zach Freemantle were steadily warrioring along, and just over three wars stood between X and putting themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Instead, they folded. You all saw or heard it, you don’t need a full recap. It turns out that John Hughley wasn’t announcing himself on the scene against Creighton, he was instead a bolide, burning incredibly brightly even as it comes apart. He was unable to guard Eric Dixon. Jerome Hunter was weirdly ineffective. Sean Miller had to go small and, when he did, Dixon went off.
You can apportion blame however you would like. Ryan Conwell continued his disappearing act. He’s now shooting 32.6% behind the arc in conference play. Dayvion McKnight’s slide has maybe been more subtle, but more precipitous. He’s not posted an offensive rating over 100 in nearly a month and only four times in 13 conference games. Two of those were in the first two. Dailyn Swain went back to lurking, losing time to Maddox and eventually not doing much of anything.
Xavier did not need to win this game by 20. They did need to show some fight. If before the game I had told you that Xavier would hold Nova to five players scoring and that two of those would combine to score 13, you’d likely have been happy. Instead, Eric Dixon, Wooga Poplar, and somehow Tyler freaking Perkins dominated the game. When X needed to show fight, they instead allowed a 14-2 run that ended the game and started to throw shovefuls of dirt on the season.
It isn’t over. Xavier is hanging right around the cut line. Winning out puts them on the right side of the bubble and probably looking at a play-in game. There would, of course, be a chance to burnish that resume at the BET. And, that, really is where the problem is. Teams that are right on the edge need a compelling argument to get in. Xavier does not have one. They have a single Q1 win. As the schedule stands now they don’t have another one. They could maybe get another one if Creighton at home moves up two slots or Butler away moves up seven. Maybe the BET would present another.
But that’s all wishcasting. Xavier had a Q1 in hand yesterday an threw it away. Literally. Their 21.9% turnover rate was one of their worst of the year. Winning out now presents their best chance to get in, but does anyone actually think they can do that? Does this look like a team that can beat Creighton or grind out a close win over Butler? Maybe they can. They have, after all, beaten Villanova, Marquette, and UConn. They are also 2-3 in their last five. They spit the bit in this game and against SJU.
It can happen. Xavier just made it infinitely harder on themselves last night. When the Eagles and Lamar rose to the occasion, Xavier wilted. They can’t afford to again. One more loss and this thing flatlines. It’s going to be a fraught February.