Xavier can ruin Senior Night. Butler can ruin Xavier’s season. Something is gonna happen in this one.
Resumes don’t get bubblier than Xavier’s. If the season ended today, it would be just about a coin toss for the Muskies. The season doesn’t end today though, which means there are still chances to consolidate things… or let it all slip.
On January 7th, Xavier got punched directly in the zipper by St. John’s on their own court. That dropped X to 9-7 (1-4) on the year; the season looked all but dead and buried. Then one of the most veteran teams in the nation found another gear. Since that game, Xavier has gone 10-3 and performed like a top 25 team in the nation (per Bart Torvik), gathering 2.4 wins above bubble and breathing life back into the campaign. It can all go away with a loss in either of these last two regular season games.
About the time Xavier was getting barnstormed by St. John’s, Butler was in the clutches of a 2-12 stretch that saw them go from 7-1 and holding a couple of pretty good wins to 9-13 and functionally dead in the water. They’ve righted the ship a bit since then, going 4-3 in their last 7, but whatever good feelings they had accumulated early in the season are a distant memory at this point.
What could do a little bit to put a cherry on top of the turd sundae of a season would be ruining their big brother’s at-large run at the eleventh hour. Playing on the road for a struggling team’s Senior Night to grab a critical win is never an easy task, but the Muskies gave themselves a tough road back. Get this one and they’re within touching distance of the finish line.
Team fingerprint
Butler’s offense has been pretty solidly middle of the road in the Big East, bolstered largely by their strength inside the arc. They’re third in the league at almost 54% from two-point range and they shoot 62% of their shots from in there, which is fifth. They’re a strong free throw shooting team and have been second only to Xavier in free throw rate. They’re a tick above average in EFG% and ball security, and they grind the tempo on offense. Their big weakness is the offensive glass, where they’re eighth in the league.
The defense is not good. They are strong in some areas, ranking second in the league in both defensive rebounding percentage and defensive free throw rate. They’re also allowing teams to shoot just 31.2% from behind the arc, which is an obviously impressive number. That’s where the good stuff ends. They’re eleventh in league in turnover rate and ninth in defensive EFG%. Teams absolutely slaughter them from inside the arc, and they don’t block a lot of shots or force a lot of steals or really do much to prevent that from happening. Almost 58% of the points scored against them are from twos, which is the highest rate in the Big East. They’re bottom ten in the nation on the season in terms of defending inside the arc. It’s bad.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Finley Bizjack | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’4″, 190 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 9.4/3/2.3 | Game line | 9.8/2.5/4.5 |
| 44.1/43.6/70.3 | Shooting line | 42.6/36/78 |
| Butler doesn’t really have a true point, as Bizjack plays more like a shooting guard, but he’s maybe the closest they have in the starting five. He doesn’t distribute much and he’s not good from inside the arc, but only Dante Maddox, Jr has shot better than he has from deep in Big East play. If he gets hot, all bets are off. | ||
| Jahmyl Telfort | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Senior | Class | Junior |
| 6’7″, 225 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 16/4.7/3.4 | Game line | 15.8/2.9/2.4 |
| 46.4/36/78.8 | Shooting line | 43.6/39.9/81.8 |
| Telfort is big enough to bully just about anyone who matches up with him, but he is actually not a great finisher. He is an excellent mid-range scorer with a deep bag and a very serviceable three-point shooter. He’s also the best distributor the Bulldogs have and much of their offense will be run through him. | ||
| Pierre Brooks II | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’6″, 240 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 15.6/4.9/1.9 | Game line | 8/4.6/1.9 |
| 47.8/35.3/79.8 | Shooting line | 40.3/40.4/78.4 |
| Absolutely thicker than the windows on a submarine. Brooks is shooting almost 60% from inside the arc in Big East play thanks to being a solid finisher and an incredibly efficient mid-range scorer. He does enough to require respect from beyond the arc, but inside it is where he pays the bills. He’s not a great defender, but he keeps himself out of foul trouble on that end so he can get buckets on the other. | ||
| Patrick McCaffery | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’9″, 215 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 11/4.6/1.5 | Game line | 10.3/5.3/2.7 |
| 42/39.7/88 | Shooting line | 53.8/19/82 |
| Doesn’t defend, doesn’t distribute, doesn’t board that much. What he does do is take 60% of his shots from behind the arc and connect on almost 40% of those. He shot 47% from deep in non-conference, but he’s just 34% in Big East play and 5-22 (23%) in his last five games. If he has lost his legs a bit and isn’t hitting from deep, he’s going to have trouble finding ways to impact the game. | ||
| Boden Kapke | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’11”, 255 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 3.6/2.5/0.6 | Game line | 15.8/2.9/2.4 |
| 38.9/27.1/60.7 | Shooting line | 43.6/39.9/81.8 |
| Winner of the Ryan Kalkbrenner Memorial “Just Big” trophy, Kapke is here to fill a spot in the starting lineup and take the minutes left behind by Andre Screen’s foul trouble. He takes more shots from three than two despite being gigantic and not good at threes. He’s an okay rebounder, anonymous rim protector, and fairly foul prone on the defensive end. He did have a double-double in just 22 minutes against Seton Hall, which is admittedly impressive. |
Reserves
The bench is three guys (sound familiar!?), the most prominent of which is Andre Screen. He’s a 7’1”, 260-pound center averaging 8.2/6.1/1.1 per game. He blocks 1.5 shots per game, but he fouls a ton in so doing. He’s a good rebounder and efficient around the rim; he’s a very solid backup big man.
Guard help comes primarily in the form of Kolby King, a 6’2” combo guard who also somehow leads the team in DReb%. He averages 5.5/4.4/1.8 per game on a shooting line of .439/.389/.694, though it should be noted he’s just 10-30 (33.3%) form behind the arc in league play. His contributions in the assist column are undercut by real issues with ball security. Landon Moore is a backup guard who averages 3.0/1.7/1.4 in 16 minutes per game. He’s an awful shooter (.308/.130/.703), fouls almost 4 times per 40 in Big East games, and has a miniscule usage rate. He popped off for 13 against a very good Mississippi State team, so it’s in there somewhere.
Three questions
-How much Hinkle Magic will be in play? Butler’s home court is a barn, but they defend it well. They haven’t lost by double-digits at home in Big East play, and their last home game was a hard-fought 76-70 loss to St. John’s that they had at a single possession coming out of the under-4 timeout in the second half. They’re the third-best home offense in the league, and – with both of these teams getting a lot of their offense from the line – could definitely benefit from home cooking from the zebras. Mix in the emotional bump of Senior Night and this game has red flags all over it for Xavier.
-Is Zach Freemantle hitting a stride? There’s no question Xavier has been riding Big Frosty like Seattle Slew, but that incredible usage rate has come with some attrition to the big man’s efficiency in conference play. At least that was the story until he went on an absolute heater against Creighton, dropping 23/6/3 with no turnovers in a comprehensive beatdown of the purported best interior defender in the league. Most notable about that showing was his perfect 8-8 from inside the arc, a trend that might portend well against one of the worst interior defenses in the country.
-Does Thad Matta have an adjustment for the offense? At Cintas, Xavier’s defense blitzed Butler after a slow start, forcing a 25.6% TO rate from the Bulldogs that only St. John’s and Missouri State (?) have bettered the entire season. Matta has been around a while and has a sharp basketball mind, but it’s hard to say exactly what you can do to increase ball security on a team with no healthy point guards. Xavier’s defense doesn’t usually key on forcing turnovers, but I don’t know that they should aim to fix something that wasn’t broken the first time around.
Three keys
-Get the ball in Dailyn Swain’s hands. There was something almost inspiring about watching Swain try everything but climbing over Ryan Kalkbrenner on his way to shooting 5-16 against Creighton, but his final game line of 10/7/5 with 0 turnovers showed how valuable he can be even when he misses 11 shots in 27 minutes. His ability to make things happen while going downhill is unmatched on either roster; he can regularly unlock Butler’s fairly permeable defense.
-Throw John Hugley IV at Andre Screen. Screen is a big paint bully who throws his body around on both ends of the floor. He both draws and commits a lot of fouls. It’s not going to help Xavier at all for Freemantle to burn a foul or two fighting for position and boards against a dude four inches taller and forty pounds heavier than him. Let Hugley go in there and throw his weight around; if both of them end up with four fouls and ten minutes played on the game, that’s a win for the Muskies.
-Work the paint relentlessly. In Big East games, teams shoot 55% from two-point range against Butler at Hinkle. Magical indeed. Zach Freemantle and Dailyn Swain are the obvious two players to key on this, but Ryan Conwell was 4-6 from inside the arc against Butler at Cintas and got himself going by slashing first before raining threes against Creighton. Butler can be had on the fast break, but even if they get back and get set, the best way through them is old-fashioned paint basketball. Xavier can take the drama out of this one by staying committed to attacking the lane.