It’s to Xavier’s credit that they’ve fought so far back that this game matters.
At the beginning of February, Xavier’s season was on life support. Having played the Big East’s toughest schedule to that point, they were 5-6 in the league and 13-9 overall. A full WAB on the wrong side of zero, they’d need to do something special to get back into contention.
Something special in this context amounted to going 8-1 the rest of the way. With that in mind, Xavier fans circled two huge hurdles on the schedule: at Nova on Feb 9 and home to Creighton on Mar 1. Illness wiped out Xavier’s chances of running with Nova for 40 minutes; the margin for error was torched just two games in.
That brings us to today. Since February 1, Xavier is 33rd in the Torvik rankings; Creighton is 32nd. The Bluejays are 5-2 in that span, with their losses coming home to UConn and at St. John’s by a total of 10 points. Led by BEPOY candidate Ryan Kalkbrenner, they’re fighting to solidify their grasp on a top-two spot in the league and burnish their resume with a final regular season Q1 opportunity.
Games like these are what makes college basketball in March special. Someone is going to come away from this with a huge boost; if it isn’t Xavier, they’ll functionally be auto-bid or bust.
Team fingerprint
Creighton loves shooting threes in a way that is borderline pathological. Owing to their exactly average 33.8% success rate from deep, they can probably recognize that continuing to huck them up isn’t good for them, but they reliably take half their shots from deep. This is all made even more confounding with the understanding that Creighton shoots over 60% from inside the arc, a mark that’s first in the league and second in the nation. Statistically, the Bluejays throw away about .2 points every time they choose a three over a two. I know the game itself is more nuanced than that, but it’s staggering how much they #LetItFly with that math behind it.
Anyway, they’ve been pretty pedestrian in ball security, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate in conference play. They’re shooting ten percentage points better from three in their Big East wins than in their Big East losses. I’m not saying it’s that simple, but maybe it is?
Their defense has been incredibly stout, anchored by Kalkbrenner in the middle. Much like UConn in the Cling Kong era, their defensive strategy focuses on funneling all the action to Big Kalk in the paint. They chase teams off the arc relentlessly to get them to have to make a decision whether to pull up in the mid range or try to shoot over a literal giant. They’re also first in the league in DReb% and defensive free throw rate. They don’t force turnovers at all, but they are so effective at forcing one bad shot at no second chance per possession that they’re the #2 defense in the league.
Players
Starters
Our Google Sheet is acting up, so get ready for words instead. Ryan Kalkbrenner is obviously the BIG problem. He averages 18.9/8.7/1.9. See below for more on him.
Steven Ashworth is maybe the most intelligent player in the conference. He also has a knack for being obnoxious. His 17/4.1/6.9 comes at a 110.9 efficiency. It’s more likely he takes a bad shot than makes a bad turnover.
Jamiya Neal is not nearly as efficient. Pencil him in for 11.7/6.1/4.3 but on a 102 offensive rating. Still, he boards an elite level for a guard and can defend well.
The reason Neal plays guard is because Jasen Green is a 6-8 wing man. 4.3/2.9/0.9 isn’t winning plaudits, but he can score inside. Green won’t play starter minutes despite starting.
Finally it’s Jackson McAndrew. McAndrew would seem tall at 6-10 is Kalkbrenner wasn’t his front court mate. 7.1/4.3/0.1 isn’t awful, but, again, Kalkbrenner makes it look bad. McAndrew is a pick and pop four or a spot up four. He doesn’t relish the fight.
Reserves
You remember Isaac Traudt, because he did nothing for a long time, then killed X the first time. That’s what he does. He’ll pick his spots and then execute. Only six players have shot the three better in Big East play. Mason Miller is next in bench minutes, but they’ve decreased all season long as his efficiency has dropped /checks notes/ 50 points since last year. Rounding out bench guys playing real minutes is Fedor Zugic, a 6-6 guard you get no points for guessing is from the Balkans. Zugic played his most minutes of the year in the last game and flashed some good inside ability. He likes to shoot the three, but is less enthusiastic about actually making it.
Three questions
-How does Xavier handle Kalkbrenner? In the first game, the answer was “not well.” He dropped 29/9/3 on the Muskies at Creighton and didn’t look particularly strained in so doing. If he reels off something similar today, it’s going to be a tough afternoon for the home team. Most teams that have held him in check this year have run multiple very big men at him, which is a luxury Xavier doesn’t have. It’s going to take some clever strategic wrinkles to paper over the cracks in Xavier’s frontcourt that Kalkbrenner will be looking to exploit. We discussed this a little more in depth earlier this week.
-Can Xavier string together 40 minutes? The group that has earned the moniker of “The Best 30 Minute Team in the Country” fell victim to that tendency in the road leg of this matchup. The game was tied with just under 10 to play, then Creighton outscored Xavier 25-16 the rest of the way behind a barrage of threes that the Muskies couldn’t answer. The starting five X runs out can play with anyone; getting something from the bench will be vital today.
-Where will the whistle land? Or, can Xavier get to the line? No team in the league gets more of their production from the free throw line than the Muskies do. No team in the league fouls less than Creighton does. X had a free throw rate of 25.8% in that game; the only games they’ve won with a number lower than that are buy games and Butler. If they can get Kalkbrenner into some foul trouble, so much the better. How this one is officiated will be huge.
Three keys
-Make them shoot threes. Creighton has definitely proven that they’ll live and die by what they do behind the arc, regardless of how well they’re shooting from inside it. Their top three games in three-point rate – including a staggering 80.8% against Nebraska – have all been losses. They “only” took 43.9% of their shots from deep in their home win over X. They’re 8-0 when they take under 45% of their shots from deep and just 12-8 when they take 45%+ from long range. They love to #LetItFly and they should be encouraged to do so today.
-Pressure Ashworth. Xavier’s game plan was clearly to do so last time, and he responded with seven turnovers. He can definitely be shaken out of his game by good ball pressure, but if he is left with room to work, he and Kalkbrenner are unstoppable in ball screen action. I know it’s easier said than done, but the Muskies need a mythic effort from whatever defenders they run at Creighton’s veteran point.
-Marcus Foster. Xavier’s big wing went for 2/6/0 against Creighton in 26 minutes in the first leg, possibly the first victim of the influenza epidemic that swept through Xavier’s roster. He bounced back with 17 and 13 against Georgetown 6 days later and has intermittently shown himself to be dangerous since then. With Freemantle, Conwell, and Swain drawing the attention and the headlines, the quietest member of Xavier’s starting five might end up making the most noise today.