Xavier goes to Georgetown in a what needs to be another win in an ongoing streak
When the schedule came up it’s not likely as anyone marked this as anything other than a trap game. With respect to Georgetown, the only reason they aren’t winless in the Big East is because the worst major conference team in the nation is also weighing the league down like a sea anchor. The top nine in the Big East are all top 70 teams in the nation. Georgetown is 194th. DePaul is 308th. Both are miserable.
Xavier isn’t miserable, but they are in serious trouble. X can either win the auto bid or win every game until the Big East final. There’s no real sugar coating it. This game has gone from one of those where a loss could be detrimental to seeding to a game where Xavier simply must win.
Team fingerprint
On offense Georgetown is only kind of bad. They’re 107th in the nation in offensive efficiency based largely on long possessions and the strength of their offensive rebounding, which is very nearly top 50 in the country. The Hoyas are 273rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage and that is just one red number in a plethora of them. Other than offensive rebounding and non-steal turnovers, Ed Cooley’s team doesn’t crack the top 130 in any offensive category Ken Pomeroy tracks.
Defensively the Hoyas are truly awful. Their effective field goal percentage is 351st, only 11 off the bottom. They get torched, truly torched inside and give up a 35% mark from behind the arc. In Bambi we learned to not say anything if we couldn’t say anything nice. For that reason, the discussion of Georgetown’s defense ends here.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jayden Epps | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’2″, 187 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 17.9/2.4/4.3 | Game line | 12.1/3.8/5.1 |
| 38.8/30.9/80 | Shooting line | 46/38.4/81.1 |
| Just an absolute chucker. He shoots first and passes a distant second. His EFG% of 41.4% in conference is abject, dragged down by shooting 25.8% from deep on more than 7 attempts per game in Big East play. Somehow, his light has stayed as green as can be despite the struggle. He assists well and doesn’t turn the ball over, and he draws a decent amount of fouls. Keep him off the line right now and he’s going to have trouble scoring. | ||
| Rowan Brumbaugh | Shooting Guard | Quincy Olivari |
| Freshman | Class | Senior |
| 6’4″, 183 | Measurements | 6’3″, 200 |
| 8.2/2.1/2.7 | Game line | 19.4/5.3/2 |
| 40.2/35.8/79 | Shooting line | 44.4/43.6/82.1 |
| Brumbaugh has similar efficiency and better shooting numbers than Epps in fewer than half the attempts. Maybe there’d be more shots to go around if Epps didn’t take a third of the teams shots. Brumbaugh has shown some promise as a scorer and he has good size for a point if he gets the chance to move there. His emergence as a freshman has been a bright spot in a bad season for the Hoyas. | ||
| Wayne Bristol, Jr. | Small Forward | Desmond Claude |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’6″, 195 | Measurements | 6’6″, 203 |
| 3.9/3.4/0.8 | Game line | 15.3/4.2/3.3 |
| 37.5/29.5/74.2 | Shooting line | 40.6/21.1/78.3 |
| Bristol has been in and out of the lineup all season, starting 9 of the team’s 28 games. He has never built on the promise he showed as a freshman at Howard in his time at Georgetown, but he’s a good defender and reliable from the free throw line. There’s not too much to say here; he’s not a big part of the game plan for the Hoyas. | ||
| Dontrez Styles | Power Forward | Kachi Nzeh |
| Junior | Class | Freshman |
| 6’6″, 212 | Measurements | 6’8″, 230 |
| 13.1/5.6/0.8 | Game line | 1.7/1.8/0.3 |
| 42.1/36.8/79.6 | Shooting line | 50/0/40 |
| Styles has done well to maximize his skill set amongst his less capable peers. He gets to the glass and that line well, and he’s shooting 84% from there in conference play. He shoots the three well enough to need to be respect out there and has a solid a mid-range game. He can be a little foul prone, but nothing that is going to keep him from impacting the game on a regular basis. | ||
| Supreme Cook | Center | Abou Ousmane |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’9″, 229 | Measurements | 6’10”, 240 |
| 10.9/8.1/0.5 | Game line | 7.1/6.4/1.2 |
| 59.3/0/55.5 | Shooting line | 47.3/25/44.6 |
| Cook is an absolute monster in the paint; he leads the league in OReb% and free throw rate, and he’s in the top 10 in DReb%, EFG%, and fouls drawn per 40. Almost a third of his shots at the rim are putbacks; he has to be accounted for on the defensive glass. He’s not a huge threat from the mid-range, but he can take a step or two away from the charge arc and be effective. Like Styles, he has some intermittent foul problems. |
Reserves
Georgetown isn’t terribly deep. Jay Heath continues a career of mediocrity at the guard spot. He’s been pretty much bang average for all four years of his college career and is again this year. He’ll get his eight a game, but it’s volume scoring. He started a lot of the season. Ish Massoud is the second man and first big off the bench. He’s significantly worse this year than he was at Kansas St last year. He’s a good defensive rebounder and excellent foul shooter but is shooting a shocking 26.8% inside the arc this season. That’s not a typo. Drew Fielder is a freshman big who is having a very good offensive year but, like so many freshman, fouls too much to stay on the court. He’s the final Hoya to have played in every game.
Three questions
– Is Quincy Olivari back firing? At one point Olivari was 10-34 from behind the arc as he approached the half against DePaul. Then, he flipped a switch. He scored 28 in the second half in a barrage that rocked the Blue Demons and brought the Cintas to life (and gave Brad Colbert his chance). If he gets going, Xavier has a chance to do damage going forward. He deserves to dance.
– Can Xavier take advantage of a horrid defense? Georgetown is the fourth worst team in the nation in two point defense. Teams that sound like they are invented to fill space (North Carolina A&T, Mississippi Valley State, and Houston Christian) also plumb those depths. Xavier desperately, desperately need one of their big men to be offensively competent. Can Ousmane just bully his way? Will it be Ciani’s deft footwork? Maybe Nemo is back at the races? Someone has to be worth their scholarship.
– Will Xavier defensively rebound? The one thing that gives the Hoyas a chance in any game is their offensive rebounding. The Hoyas didn’t shoot well inside the arc against Xavier the first time, but they took eight more attempts in there than the Musketeers did. They grabbed almost 40% of their misses. X isn’t a good defensive rebounding team, but they need to sort it tonight.
Three keys
– Don’t do the dumb stuff: Doing the dumb stuff has almost defined Xavier’s season. The Musketeers don’t always make absurd mistakes, but they tend to make them at crippling times. A litany of dudes dribbling off their feet isn’t what the Musketeers need today.
– Get production everywhere: Dailyn Swain and Trey Green were both good against DePaul. The Euros were not and Kachi Nzeh, God love his effort, couldn’t find the bucket or the ball to save his life. It can’t just always be the big three. (As of this writing there is no official word on Des Claude’s status.)
– Keep the joy: The Musketeers were giddy by the end of the game on Wednesday. Of course that was DePaul, but this game is supposed to be fun and it was good to see them having fun. Georgetown doesn’t create much of a crowd and Xavier Nation travels well. Keep things rolling, build some momentum, and try to turn this into a miracle.