The bubble situation could not be more clear: if Xavier wins this one, they’re in.
Well. A season that tipped off five months ago has come to the pointy end, and the whole operation for Xavier could very well come down to these 40 minutes. The injuries, the slow start, the strong finish… it’s all been prologue to whatever story these two teams write in this contest. There’s no more work to be done; it’s time to pay out.
In a lot of ways, Tuesday, January 7th was the dividing line for both of these teams. In the early game that day, Xavier got run off of their own court to fall to 9-7; later that day, Marquette cruised by Georgetown to move to an incredible 14-2. Both teams played DePaul next. Xavier beat them easily on the weekend; Marquette, fresh off of an entire week between games, needed overtime to sneak by the Blue Demons.
Since that weirdly symmetrical nadir/apogee moment, the Muskies are 12-3 and playing as well as anyone in the Big East while Marquette is 8-7 and performing in a manner as middling as their record would imply. If there’s a question of class, the Golden Eagles probably still take it, but there’s no doubt that Xavier is currently in better form. If the Musketeers can stay hot, they’ll punch their ticket to the Big Dance this afternoon.
Team fingerprint
Marquette loves to play fast, clean basketball. They’re second in the league in offensive tempo and first in turnover rate. They also fly to the glass, grabbing nearly a third of their own misses. Unfortunately (depending on your perspective, I suppose), they just aren’t a good shooting team at all. They’re eighth in league in 3P% at 31.8%, and they shoot 45% of their shots from behind the arc. They’re solid but not special from inside the arc, and they’re absolutely miserable at getting to the line, though they aren’t bad once they get there. If Jones is in foul trouble or can’t get going, they can have real trouble developing a second option.
Here’s a surprise for a Shaka Smart team: they love to foul and not get called for it force turnovers. They’ll try to force the opponent into long possessions and swarm ballhandlers and passing lanes to get their opponents to cough the ball up. They somehow do it without catching many calls, slotting inside the top 100 nationally in free throw rate. They’re also an excellent perimeter defensive team, which is obviously not great news for Xavier. They’re exactly national average in two-point defense and significantly below that mark in DReb%; only one of those hints at a possible way through for Xavier.
Players
Starters
Kam Jones Point Guard Dayvion McKnight
Senior Class Senior
6’5″, 205 Measurements 6’0″, 188
18.9/4.5/6.1 Game line 9.7/2.5/4.3
48.5/30.6/64.6 Shooting line 42.1/35.8/80.2
This is the guy for Marquette. He’s not a super shooter, but he distributes really well and almost never turns the ball over. What really sets him apart is his ability to be pretty efficient in absolutely colossal usage. He’s third in the league in usage rate and shots percentage and eleventh in minutes percentage. To carry that much of the load and not buckle under it is remarkable; to also be as good a defender as he is makes him a very special player.
Stevie Mitchell Shooting Guard Ryan Conwell
Senior Class Junior
6’3″, 200 Measurements 6’4″, 215
10.7/4.2/1.6 Game line 16.2/2.8/2.5
48.4/36.1/72.6 Shooting line 43.8/40.7/82.5
Mitchell is a really good defender with the offensive skills to be extremely efficient in low usage. He can guard any perimeter position and often draws the opposing team’s best player. He’s obviously not the only person responsible for it, but Ryan Conwell has 13 total points on 23 shots against Marquette this season. This will be a matchup that may will pivot the result of the contest.
Chase Ross Small Forward Marcus Foster
Junior Class Senior
6’5″, 210 Measurements 6’5″, 215
10.6/3.9/2.2 Game line 7.7/4.7/2
46.5/36.2/75 Shooting line 39.3/38.6/75.9
As is generally the case up and down Marquette’s roster, Ross is an excellent defender, maybe the best on the team. He gets a lot of his offensive production from the free throw line, but he’s also a capable scorer at the rim and from behind the arc. He’s rarely the forcus of the offensive game plan, but he has it in him to explode and hang a big number on you.
David Joplin Power Forward Dailyn Swain
Senior Class Sophomore
6’8″, 225 Measurements 6’8″, 220
13.9/5.4/1.3 Game line 10.5/5.4/2.7
41.7/31.2/81.2 Shooting line 53/18.2/83
Joplin doesn’t measure out as that much different than Swain, but the dude is built like a brick outhouse. In addition to being thicker than the windows on a submarine, he’s a strong interior player with solid mid-range game. He’s not a great rebounder, but he’s scrappy around the rim as a defender and generally doesn’t give anything away for free on either end of the court.
Ben Gold Center Zach Freemantle
Junior Class Senior
6’11”, 235 Measurements 6’9″, 227
7.7/4.2/0.8 Game line 16.2/2.8/2.5
44.1/37.3/77.4 Shooting line 43.8/40.7/82.5
Really, really good shooter. He’s second in the league in EFG%, and the bulk of it comes on splashing threes. He has made 50 of them on the year, which is a big number for a fella his size. He’s a viable defender but certainly not dominant, and he’s not a great rebounder at either end. When he does go for a big number, it’s usually on ridiculous efficiency, like when he rained 17 on Providence on 7-9 shooting.
Maybe the most important thing about Marquette’s starting lineup is the only one it has had to have all year. It’s almost axiomatic that a basketball team will be beset by injuries or ineffectiveness at some point in time, but never once all year has Shaka Smart had to do anything other than pencil in his five best guys and roll the ball out.
Reserves
Not super deep, this Golden Eagle squad. They’re exactly 300th in the nation with 26.2% of their minutes coming off the pine.
Let’s highlight Zaide Lowery first; he’s a 6’5”, 200-pound guard who averages 4.1/2.8/0.1 per game and shoots over 40% from behind the arc. Royce Parham is the top bench big, and his 5.2/2.3/0.4 per game comes on solid efficiency and good work on the offensive boards. He has taken 84 threes this year despite shooting 28.6% on them.
Further down the depth chart, guard Tre Norman goes for 2/1.6/0.5 per in 10 minutes of play; he’s dreadfully inefficient when he does play. Forward Damarius Owens is more efficient and has shown flashes of being not bad. He averages 2.9/1.3/0.5 on 34.8/35.5/90.9 shooting. He’s not much of a rebounder and has struggled to get consistent minutes, but I think the tools to be a very good player are there.
Three questions
-Can Xavier get to the line enough? The Muskies live to get into the middle and get fouled. Marquette loves to slap players until they turn the ball over. Theoretically, this should be a recipe for success for X. In two games against the Golden Eagles though, Xavier on aggregate was below their season average in free throw rate against Marquette. If Xavier can’t get those points, they’ll need to figure something else out, which brings us to the question of…
-Can Xavier make enough offense on the perimeter? X went a combined 8-36 (22.2%) from behind the arc against Marquette this year. This team relies on free throws and three-point efficiency to generate offense, and Marquette’s defense has the tools to make getting those things incredibly difficult. That’s a pretty grim prognosis unless our boys can find something else, which dovetails nicely into…
-Will Zach Freemantle’s form make the difference? Big Frosty missed the first game due to injury, which is a fact that the selection committee should have on the forefront of their minds every waking moment. He was back but not at his best when X went deep into the gritty, not pretty ethos to grind out a win in the return leg. Now he’s in the form of his life, averaging 24.3/7.3/2.3 on .702/.333/.750 shooting in three games in March this year. He can cement his legacy as a Xavier legend if he keep that rolling.
Three keys
-Limit turnovers. Xavier has a TO rate of 13.9% in their seven-game unbeaten run, a mark that would be second in the league over the length of the conference season. They were especially stingy against Creighton and Butler, the two biggest games of the season so far. This one is bigger still. When X struggles with ball security, it’s usually in silly ways. If their execution is crisp early, that’s an excellent sign.
-Make Kam Jones work. Marquette’s talismanic guard is shooting 13-33/1-9/4-7 against the Musketeers this year. He’s almost impossible to stop – he has 31 points and 13 assists in those two games – but Xavier has done really well in slowing him down as much as they have this season. He’ll get some stats, but if he can do it efficiently in big volume, it will be a long afternoon for our boys.
-Find a way. I know this is pretty cliche, but this is a game that Xavier has to do whatever it takes to get across the line. These two teams have played two straight-up battles this year, and this should be absolute cinema at the world’s most famous arena. It has been such a long road back for Xavier; they can write it in stone today.