The road in front of Xavier is simple: win out
There is no nuance in what Xavier has to do now. The Musketeers just kept missing opportunities and now they are here. There are two games that should be easy enough, a toss up, and two games against a very, very good Marquette team. Xavier has to win them all to have a chance at the tournament. Even just dropping the Marquette road game and then going on a four game winner won’t be enough. It’s five in a row, the auto bid, or the NIT.
Unfortunately, it’s Marquette that Xavier has twice down the stretch. That’s the reason five wins would get the job done, it’s also the reason five wins is so incredibly unlikely. The Golden Eagles are top 15 in KenPom, they’re fifth in strength of record, and they are projected as a two seed on the Bracket Matrix. Shaka Smart’s team has lost twice at home over the last two entire seasons. This won’t be easy.
Team Fingerprint
Marquette thrives on their defense. They turn teams over at an alarming rate, slow the pace, and don’t foul much. If you can get shots up against them you’ll actually have a good chance, but they force turnovers on 22.4% of opponent’s possessions. They’re mediocre other than that, but that’s an enormous hurdle to clear.
Offensively Marquette shoots more threes than their mediocre percentage would suggest they should, but they are elite inside the arc. They play even faster than Xavier and are essentially hunting the first good luck. They don’t care if the game is a track meet, because they have the athletes to do it. Tyler Kolek thrives in an open court game when the defense isn’t set. The media fawning over him is annoying, but he makes this high speed offense work.
Players
| Tyler Kolek | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’3″, 195 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 15.2/4.7/7.6 | Game line | 12.1/3.7/4.9 |
| 48.3/40.6/88.2 | Shooting line | 46.4/38.5/80.6 |
| Kolek came into the season as the favorite to repeat as Big East Player of the Year and has more or less lived up to the billing. His efficiency in conference play has dropped by 10 points,due largely to the fact he has been much less effective inside the arc than he was a season ago, but he is still elite in terms of distribution and logs a ton of minutes with the ball in his hands and very few issues with ball security. He has blown hot or cold at times with his shooting this year and almost all of Marquette’s conference losses are accompanied by an ugly shooting line from the man tasked with keeping the offense clicking. |
| Stevie Mitchell | Shooting Guard | Quincy Olivari |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’3″, 200 | Measurements | 6’3″, 200 |
| 8.1/3.5/0.6 | Game line | 19.1/5.3/1.9 |
| 51.8/27.1/73.3 | Shooting line | 43.8/44.3/82.8 |
| Mitchell is Marquette’s leader on the defensive end and among the best on ball guards in the conference. He is typically the 5th option on offense, a role he fills very efficiently, but makes him impact by creating more turnovers than any other player in the Big East. He rarely ever turns the ball over as well, so his presence gives Marquette a major leg up in the freebie war. |
| Kam Jones | Small Forward | Desmond Claude |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’5″, 200 | Measurements | 6’6″, 203 |
| 15.1/2.6/2.1 | Game line | 16.1/4.2/3.5 |
| 48.5/39.2/74.4 | Shooting line | 41.3/21.7/78.7 |
| Jones is coming off a 34 point performance, albeit against DePaul, and can absolutely light a defense up when given time and space. He has struggled to impact games at time this season against top tier competition, but he shoots 70% at the rim and 39% from deep, so he is a hard guard for most teams. |
| David Joplin | Power Forward | Gytis Nemeiksa |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 225 | Measurements | 6’7″, 220 |
| 10.5/3.4/0.5 | Game line | 6/4.8/1 |
| 42.7/39.2/65 | Shooting line | 45.9/35.7/60.7 |
| Joplin is a stretch 4 who will punish any team that is unable to get a hand in his face on the perimeter. He doesn’t do a ton on the glass, despite his size, but his presence means that any team who wants to pack the lane to keep Kolek from driving does so at the risk of letting this dude rain threes on them all day. He is a good shot blocker on defense takes care of the ball on offense, but he’s rarely the primary option. |
| Oso Ighodaro | Center | Abou Ousmane |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’11”, 235 | Measurements | 6’10”, 240 |
| 14.3/7.4/2.9 | Game line | 7.2/6.5/1.2 |
| 62.1/0/63.5 | Shooting line | 48.8/25/47.2 |
| Ighodaro is a tough matchup for pretty much any big because he is efficient at the rim, but also deadly in the midrange. He gets to the offensive glass better than he does the defensive and blocks shots at a good rate without fouling very much. He’s also a very good passer out of the paint, so even if he is unable to generate a look for himself, he is excellent at doing so for his teammates. |
Reserves
With Sean Jones out for the season, Marquette has two players off the bench averaging double digit minutes. Chase Ross is a reserve wing who can score reasonably well at the rim and is capable of making an impact from three as well. He creates a lot of turnovers and is exceptionally good at getting himself to the line and converting. Kiwi big man Ben Gold gets after the boards at both ends and shoots a staggering 84% at the rim, but has seen fit to step out and shoot 81 threes this season at a 32% rate. Still, he feasts in the paint when he gets the chance, but can be foul prone.
Three questions
– Does Xavier have anything left? The Musketeers look weary. There is no appreciable depth to this team, especially in the post, and some of the stars looked a little fatigued down the stretch against Providence. Marquette plays incredibly fast and isn’t likely to slow things down out of some sort of sporting impulse. Trey Green being able to defend well enough to stay in or Dailyn Swain having an offensive rating over 57 would likely help.
– Who from the bench can help? That first question dovetails with this one. Someone from the bench has to do something. Outside the usual starting five the other four players who logged minutes for Xavier in the last game put up a line of 0/3/3 on 0-7 shooting in 37 putrid minutes. That is worse than awful, it’s actively undermining the efforts of everyone else. Someone has to help.
– Why do we watch sports? Chelsea just lost the League Cup with two minutes left in extra time. Xavier pissed away their season in a three game stretch in November and December. What is even the point? Well, the point is that until the final whistle blows, there is still hope. Steal, and it would be a steal, this one and the road rises to meet the Musketeers just a little bit. Why abandon hope now?
Three keys
– Score efficiently: This game is going to be blisteringly fast. If X can put points on the board effectively, they can hang with Marquette. The Musketeers will get the shots (more on that in a second). If they can knock them down, they can win. Marquette’s defense isn’t great there. Yes, you read it here first, making shots will help.
– Value the ball: The reason that first key seems so bland is because Marquette hawks the ball. Xavier has to be efficient in the shots that they take because they are going to turn the ball over a lot. X is shaky on ball security and the Golden Eagles force turnovers better than all but 11 other teams. Marquette is “only” 12-5 when teams don’t turn it over on 25% of their possessions. It’s not a bellwether, but it’s something to aim for.
– Keep Marquette on the arc: If there was a game calling out for the old packline, this is it. Marquette is lethal inside the arc, in large part because Tyler Kolek finds open people all the time. The Golden Eagles will shoot a lot from outside the arc, but they aren’t great there. If they knock down more than 36% of their threes, they win. They’re literally undefeated in that circumstance. Under 36%, though, and they are just 9-6. If they make it rain you tip your cap, but make them prove it.