We could get Seton Hall or something?
Xavier needs a respite. The Musketeers need a moment to take a breath, clear the head, sort things out, and come up with a plan. No one is punting on this season, but everyone needs to do some recalculating. The good news is that Xavier has ten days over Christmas to go home, hang with family, and recalibrate. The bad news is that they play Marquette first.
In case you’ve missed while you were caught up in the whirlwind that has been Xavier’s last two weeks, Marquette is really good. Top 10 in every system that matters good. Beat Maryland, Purdue, and Georgia in one stretch good. Only lost twice, both in true road games to top 25 teams good. UConn was a difficult opponent, there is an easy argument to make that Marquette is even more tough.
Xavier has lost four of six. They are without their best player and their defensive approach against UConn could best be described as “hope we get to play offense again soon.” Their chances of making the tournament if the season ended today would be 7.5%. There is no resume to speak of, and losing close games helps nary one bit. This is yet another chance at a Q1 win. Just winning this game alone would move them back to a 1/10 chance of making the tournament. That’s not where they’d hoped to be, but it’s a great step in the right direction.
Team fingerprint
On offense Marquette goes fast, shoots a ton of threes, and doesn’t turn the ball over. They aren’t a good three point shooting team, but they’ll make up for in volume what they lack in accuracy. They are deadly accurate inside the arc and, again, they simply don’t cough it up ever. The Golden Eagles are middling on the offensive glass (thank God), and don’t get to the line much. Those are the only nitpicky flaws in the nation’s 13th best offense.
Defensively the Golden Eagles are all the way down at 19th in the nation. They cause a ludicrous amount of turnovers by jumping passing lanes and getting steals. They are relentlessly aggressive on defense. They’re kind of ok at blocking shots and can be had by a team with a talented big man, as they don’t defend two point shots particularly well. Actually, their defense against any shots isn’t great. It’s just that they turn teams over nearly a quarter of the time they head for the defensive end.
Players
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Kam Jones | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’5″, 205 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 20.3/4.9/6.3 | Game line | 10.9/2.8/4.6 |
| 55.6/37.9/75 | Shooting line | 47.3/44.4/91.7 |
| Jones is balling out this season. He’s probably the best point guard in the nation right now. His assist rate is over 40% and his turnover rate is 9% to go with 20 points per game. Not bad. | ||
| Stevie Mitchell | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Junior | Class | Junior |
| 6’3″, 200 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 11.6/4.2/1.3 | Game line | 16.9/7.7/2.5 |
| 56.5/50/70.8 | Shooting line | 54.4/26.7/76.4 |
| Mitchell is shooting 50% behind the arc, but that’s on just 18 attempts. What he is doing is getting downhill and slaughtering defenses. His offensive efficiency is 129 and he’s top 30 in the nation in steals rate. | ||
| Chase Ross | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’5″, 210 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 11.2/4.5/2.5 | Game line | 8.3/4.3/2.3 |
| 50.5/37.8/75.7 | Shooting line | 43.2/47.2/75 |
| Chase only gets a 4.5% steal rate, so Stevie Mitchell probably laughs at him. He’s another dude who does his damage inside the arc, and he does a lot there. He’s very efficient and can get himself to the line when he needs to. | ||
| David Joplin | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’8″, 225 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 14.3/5.4/1 | Game line | 8.3/4.5/2.3 |
| 39.3/29.9/88.6 | Shooting line | 59/16.7/77.1 |
| Joplin shoots way too many threes for someone as bad as he is at them. He’s a tremendous free throw shooter, but struggles from the floor. He does block shots well and will play a ton of minutes. | ||
| Ben Gold | Center | Jerome Hunter |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’11”, 235 | Measurements | 6’8″, 225 |
| 8.6/3.8/1.5 | Game line | 5.9/3.6/0.8 |
| 42/34.9/86.7 | Shooting line | 45/42.9/70 |
| Gold is the lowest usage starter on Marquette. He’s a decent shooter who can hurt in the pick and pop. He’s a good shot blocker who doesn’t rebound as well as you’d expect someone his size to. |
Bench
No one off Marquette’s bench gets more than 15 minutes a game. Zaide Lowery was a highly thought of recruit who hasn’t settled well yet. He’s just not shooting the ball terribly well, but he defends well. Royce Parham is a forward who shoots too many threes, but is much more effective on the offensive glass. He’s a menace on defense. Damarius Owens does shoot the three well, but his sample size is very small. He does everything well on the defensive end, but is prone to erasing that good work with turnovers. Finally, Tre Norman will see double digit minutes. He barely uses the ball, and when he does he does it to the tune of a 73 offensive rating.
Three questions
– How long can Xavier maintain that intensity? Xavier’s defense was horrible against UConn, but it was very active. The Musketeers tried to gang rebound and fluster shooters. It worked to the tune of allowing more than 1.3 points per possession, but they used a lot of energy. Against teams that don’t have the offensive rebounding prowess of the Huskies that effort will be more productive if they can maintain it.
– Are there any big men? John Hugley, God love him, has been terrible. His offensive efficiency is 83.9. That’s worse than Lazar Djokovic last year. Jerome Hunter hasn’t been much better. Someone, anyone, has to figure out how to play post offense or at least give some semblance of something down there.
– How long can the guards carry this team? This has become Henry V at Agincourt. All that are left are a select band of brothers trained in the long range arts. This game will come down to McKnight, Foster, Conwell, and Maddox. Where they go, Xavier goes. If they falter, all hope is lost. If they’re elite this could be a wild ride.
Three keys
– REBOUND: Xavier lost at UConn because they couldn’t end a defensive possession. (And bad turnovers down the stretch.) They cannot let that happen again. The good news: Marquette doesn’t offensive rebound terribly well. The bad news: Xavier still doesn’t have a defensive rebounder.
– Stay calm: Marquette forces turnovers. Xavier doesn’t turn it over a lot, but they do turn it over at really bad times. They can’t. If the game leans closer to Xavier’s 16% rate, they’ll have a much better chance than if they turn it over at a 20% rate. That seems simple, yes, but it’s absolutely vital in this game. The 22.2% they did against SC State will make this a 20 point game.
– Get some production from everyone: Dayvion McKnight has been even better than he was last year, he just hasn’t been assertive. Ryan Conwell sort of slumped for a couple games. Dante Maddox is liquid mercury. Only Marcus Foster has been just rock steady. All four have to produce for Xavier to have a chance. One of the bigs has to step up as well. It’s your guess as to who.