The hard work is done, but even the lowest hurdle can be stumbled over.
When these two teams met in the middle of February, I led the preview by saying the game didn’t matter. In fact, I asserted that none of Xavier’s remaining games mattered except home to Creighton, and that one only mattered if it was a win and all the others were wins.
Remarkably, that’s exactly what happened. Xavier has ripped off six straight, added almost 2 WAB to their season tally to bring the total well above 0, and forced their way back into the bubble conversation. Depending on who you ask, Xavier is in the field right now. Depending on how results break, they might not even need a win in MSG to hear their name called on Selection Sunday… but only if they win this one.
For their part, Providence looks like a beaten team. They’ve won once in nine tries since the start of February, they just lost at home to DePaul, and their head coach is chirping their own fans. It’s not good at all. Of course, their only win in that stretch was a fairly thorough beating of Villanova, a team that has been just a half step off being Xavier’s equal for much of the year. The Friars may look like they’re searching for the closest escape hatch from this season, but weird things can happen in March. This is not a game Xavier can afford to take for granted.
Team fingerprint
Let’s start on offense, where they’re eighth in the Big East. They turn the ball over a ton, worst in the league in that department, and that undercuts everything else they try to do. They’re an excellent three-point shooting team at 37% in Big East play, but that’s about their only offensive strength. They’re okay on the offensive glass and don’t get to the line much, and they also don’t shoot it well from inside the arc. This was just not a roster built to absorb the kind of injury trouble they’ve had, though I guess few are.
The defense is ninth in the league and bad at almost everything. Like the offensive end, they’re middle of the road on the boards. They don’t force turnovers or bad shots, and they’re foul prone. Their two-point defense is okay at sixth in the league, but they don’t have much else to support that. It’s just a lot of pretty bad categories combining to make a poor defense on the whole.
Players
Starters
Jayden Pierre Point Guard Dayvion McKnight
Junior Class Senior
“6’2″”, 185″ Measurements “6’0″”, 188″
12.6/2.6/3.1 Game line 9.9/2.5/4.4
40.6/35/79.4 Shooting line 42.6/36.5/79.4
Very few players in the Big East spend as much time on the floor as Pierre does. He has been a below average offensive player in return and his shooting numbers look like he’s just out of legs. He’s shooting 31% from deep and his turnovers are up. He’s a third option having to spend too much time as primary.
Bensley Joseph Shooting Guard Ryan Conwell
Senior Class Junior
“6’2″”, 188″ Measurements “6’4″”, 215″
12.5/3.9/3.3 Game line 16/2.9/2.4
41/38.2/75.3 Shooting line 43.9/40.8/82.5
Where Pierre has fallen off, Joseph has taken a step up in conference play. He’s shooting 41% from deep, sitting in the top 10 in assist rate, and putting up solid ball security numbers. He’s been a good defender with workhorse usage and minutes numbers. He’s a bad finisher and miserable from the mid-range, but his three-point shooting and necessity make him option 1 a lot of the time for Providence.
Corey Floyd Jr. Small Forward Marcus Foster
Junior Class Senior
“6’4″”, 210″ Measurements “6’5″”, 215″
9.6/4.7/1.9 Game line 7.7/4.7/2
45.6/32.8/80.3 Shooting line 39.5/39.2/78.4
Floyd has been Providence’s most efficient perimeter guy, but he doesn’t get a ton of usage and has had some injury issues. He has gone for 13 or more points 8 times this year; Providence is 1-7 in those games. He’s good at getting to the line and nails when he gets there.
Ryan Mela Power Forward Dailyn Swain
Freshman Class Sophomore
“6’6″”, 200″ Measurements “6’8″”, 220″
5.9/5.1/1.7 Game line 10.5/5.5/2.7
45/30.4/62.5 Shooting line 53.8/18.2/82.7
This dude dropped 13 and 10 on Xavier and then backed it up with 12/9/6 in a win over Nova. The flashes are there, but the consistency isn’t. He’s a pretty mediocre finisher and can be downright bad from the line. The #pcbb Twitter crowd tends to think he’ll develop into a good player, and I’m inclined to agree. The future is more kind to him than the present though.
Oswin Erhunmwunse Center Zach Freemantle
Freshman Class Senior
“6’10″”, 220″ Measurements “6’9″”, 227″
6.4/5.4/0.2 Game line 6/2.9/2.4
71.6/0/45.6 Shooting line 43.9/40.8/82.5
Speaking of potential future stars, this mountain of a man is Providence’s most efficient offensive player, albeit in low usage. He’s a monster at the rim with an astounding 52 dunks this year, blocks a ton of shots, and eats glass on both ends. Foul trouble is a monstrous issue for him, but when he can stay on the floor, he’s a huge asset.
Reserves
A mess. Providence has used a dozen different starting lineups this year due to a mixture of injuries and ineffectiveness. Kim English has done everything short of pull fans out of the stands to try to find a combination that works and remains intact.
Wesley Cardet is the leading bench scorer, averaging 8.4/3.0/0.8 per game. He’s a 6’6″ whose minutes have declined all year, largely because he turns the ball over like it’s his job. He’s shooting 40% from deep on the year. It’s not out of the question that Rich Barron starts – the 6’5″ wing has done so 9 times this year – but he hasn’t in Providence’s last two games. He averages 5.4/2.3/0.5 on a gruesome 35.3/34.4/54.5 shooting line, but his usage is low and he doesn’t turn the ball over much.
Christ Essandoko is an almost comically large man at 7’0″, 290. He averages 4.3/3.9/0.8 on almost entirely dunks and layups. He is 1-11 on the year on mid-range twos and 3-14 from three. He’s an excellent rebounder by rate and a solid defender who commits 3.7 fouls per 40. That’s probably pertinent in light of the starting center being downright prolific in that regard.
If you watched the first game, you remember Justyn Fernandez. He came out magma hot at Xavier as Providence shot themselves to an early lead, then disappeared as his team followed suit. He averages a pedestrian 3.8/1.5/0.4 per game.
Three questions
-Can Xavier finish the season? After being in such a huge hole five games into league play and then digging all the way out, it would be reasonable to be on the lookout for a letdown here. After the emotional crescendo of the Creighton game and then going on the road to run Butler out of their own building, this game is comparatively straightforward. You’ve seen this Xavier team blink this year, but not for a while. Hopefully those days are wholly behind us.
-Is Providence dead and buried? Since the start of February, the Friars are 1-8, and only Seton Hall and Pittsburgh have worse WAB numbers among high major teams in that time. This is a group that is absolutely faceplanting through the tape. If there’s a greater white flag than coughing up a 10-point second half lead at home to DePaul, I don’t know what it is. I don’t know if these guys are each personally looking forward to the end, but their performances haven’t argued against that notion.
-Can Ryan Conwell stay hot? Xavier’s star guard has averaged 21 PPG and shot 13-20 from deep in Xavier’s last three games, all pivotal wins. Maybe just as promisingly, he’s 5-10 from inside the arc and 14-15 from the line, and he had a 4:0 A:TO against Butler while Dayvion McKnight struggled with foul trouble. It’s all seemingly coming together at the right time for him.
Three keys
-Start early. Xavier was down 11 before butts were in seats at the AMP; if they hadn’t dialed up a 22-0 run to respond, that one could have gotten interesting. The bubble can be a terrifying place to live, and Xavier has been there for a while now. If they get out early in this one and give Providence a reason to give up, the Muskies faithful can breathe a little easier and move on to hate watching other teams in peace.
-Feed Freemantle. Big Frosty was 4-10 from inside the arc at Providence; he’s a staggering 36-48 since. The more I look at that box score, the more incredible it is to me that Xavier won that game. Assuming they can’t count on having as many threes as twos (on a higher percentage!) and a 24 point advantage in free throw scoring again, it would behoove the Muskies to score some points in the paint this time around. Getting their hottest hand started early is as good a play as any.
-Crank up the ball pressure. Providence lives to turn the ball over. Xavier has won the turnover war by a total of 13 turnovers in their last two games mostly by being incredibly secure with the ball on offense; they can win it by that margin alone today if they harry Providence’s ball handlers into doing what they’ve been doing all year.