The Cincinnati Reds front office does not know what their budget is for the 2026 season. They will figure that out over the next few weeks as they head into free agency following the World Series.
The Reds have plenty of guys heading into free agency. With that will come salary leaving with the players. Pitchers Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagan, Zack Littell, and Wade Miley are free agents. Only one position player is a free agent – trade deadline acquisition Miguel Andujar. Outfielder Austin Hays has a mutual option and could be a free agent if either side declines their half. Pitchers Brent Suter and Scott Barlow have team options.
In theory, all of those guys could become free agents and it would free up roughly $38,000,000 of salary off of the books from 2025. But a good chunk of that isn’t going to be available to bring in new players.
Arbitration raises are due to plenty of guys. 14 players will get raises if the Reds decide to keep them all. They aren’t likely to do that, but for information purposes, let’s pretend that they do. MLB Trade Rumors released their projected arbitration numbers for 2026. Below we’ve listed the 14 players, their 2025 salary, their 2026 projected salary, and the increases.
| Player | 2025 Salary | 2026 Salary | Increase |
| Brady Singer | $8,750,000 | $11,900,000 | $3,150,000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | $4,925,000 | $6,400,000 | $1,475,000 |
| Gavin Lux | $3,325,000 | $5,000,000 | $1,675,000 |
| TJ Friedl | $750,000 | $4,900,000 | $4,150,000 |
| Spencer Steer | $750,000 | $4,500,000 | $3,750,000 |
| Nick Lodolo | $1,975,000 | $4,300,000 | $2,325,000 |
| Santiago Espinal | $2,400,000 | $2,900,000 | $500,000 |
| Matt McLain | $742,500 | $2,600,000 | $1,857,500 |
| Tony Santillan | $702,500 | $2,400,000 | $1,697,500 |
| Will Benson | $750,000 | $1,700,000 | $950,000 |
| Ian Gibaut | $760,000 | $1,500,000 | $740,000 |
| Graham Ashcraft | $750,000 | $1,400,000 | $650,000 |
| Sam Moll | $1,007,500 | $1,200,000 | $192,500 |
| Brandon Williamson | $742,500 | $800,000 | $57,500 |
| $28,330,000 | $51,500,000 | $23,170,000 |
It’s worth noting that those numbers aren’t precise, but ballparked. Guys like Will Benson, Ian Gibaut, and Sam Moll only made that prorated 2025 salary when in the big leagues. When they were in the minors their salary was not quite the same. It’s not a big difference in the grand scheme of things, but it is worth noting.
All told, though, the raises due to those 14 players is just over $23,000,000. That is 64% of the free agent salary that’s leaving.
As was noted above, though, it’s unlikely that the team is going to bring back all of these guys, particularly at these salaries.
The team kept Sam Moll in the minor leagues for a large part of the year. When September rolled around they had him in Triple-A. He will be 34-years-old next season and had a 6.38 ERA in 23 games in the major leagues in 2025. Is that a guy you are going to give $1,200,000 to in arbitration or is that a guy you give a non-roster spring training invitation to?
Ian Gibaut pitched in two games in 2024. In 2025 he spent a lot of time on the injured list, too. He did throw 25.1 innings with Cincinnati and had a 4.62 ERA. But he last pitched for the Reds on June 28th and then made two rehab appearances in Triple-A in early August before being shut down again. He will be 32-years-old next month. He has had one good season in his big league career and he has dealt with injuries over the last two years that have kept him off of the mound a lot. Is that the profile of a guy you guarantee $1,500,000 to in arbitration or is that a guy you maybe offer half of it to or even just non-tender them and offer a minor league deal with a spring training invite?
Santiago Espinal got plenty of playing time with the Reds this season. He started out solidly at the plate but his bat fell off after his .746 OPS in April. Once the Reds acquired Ke’Bryan Hayes at the trade deadline the playing time for Espinal dried up as he played in just 19 games the rest of the season and had just 28 at-bats from August 1st through the end of the season. While you always roll the dice with “will everyone be healthy?”, if they are, Espinal is 3rd on the depth chart or worse at every position he plays. Is that a guy you are going to pay $2,900,000 to?
People seem to be very split on Will Benson. His actual production the last two years has not been good. He’s got a .274 on-base percentage since the start of 2024. The Reds have sent him to Triple-A multiple times. His OPS+ is 81 during that time, though it was 88 in 2025. He’s a well below-average hitter when you look at his overall production. But he can be enticing because he has some power, the underlying hit metrics make it seem like he could hit better than he has with a little more luck/less bad luck. He’s still a platoon player, though, who has poor production on the field for each of the last two seasons. And he’s going to be 28-years-old next year, so the “maybe he’s going to figure it out” line really starts to hold less water with each passing day. Is that a guy you give $1,700,000 to?
If the Reds were to drop all of those guys it would save some money. It’s a savings of $7,300,000 from their projected 2026 arbitration numbers.
The Reds owe raises on signed contracts to Hunter Greene and Jose Trevino. They also have options on Austin Hays, Scott Barlow, and Brent Suter in which they would owe a total of $2,250,000 if they declined the options on all three. Greene and Trevino are getting raises of $2,000,000 and $1,825,000.
All told, if the Cincinnati ownership doesn’t raise the team budget, there’s probably somewhere around $15,000,000-20,000,000 to spend in free agency for the 2026 season depending on exactly how they deal with those arbitration raises due, team options, and non-tenders.
Attendance was up in 2025, with an additional 150,000 fans entering the ballpark. That’s not a big increase, but depending on how much you think each additional fan at the ballpark is worth – and some estimates put that at $100 – that’s probably at least $10,000,000 of additional revenue the team had over the 2024 season. Maybe that allows them to raise payroll some from where it was in 2025 and gives them a little more to work with, too.
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