They aren’t good. Apologies for the lack of a spoiler alert.
Monday’s loss to the Milwaukee Brewers left the Cincinnati Reds record at 28-31 for the 2025 season.
They’re three games under .500, according to math. They’re 9.0 games back of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central division, in which they currently sit mired in fourth place ahead of only the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Reds also currently sit 5.0 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the race for the final National League Wild Card spot in this iteration of Rob Manfred’s superexpanded megaplayoff format. The Milwaukee Brewers (1.0 game back) and San Francisco Giants (0.5 games back) sit ahead of them in that particular pecking order, with the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres currently holding the other Wild Card spots.
As of the morning of June 3rd, the Reds playoff odds sit at a meager 3.4% according to FanGraphs.com. Their odds of winning the NL Central sit at an even more obscure 0.8%.
Their poor play and current position in the standings certainly factors into that equation, but their .508 remaining strength of schedule is also a vital part. That ranks tied with the Miami Marlins for the most difficult remaining schedule among all National League clubs, an indication that the Reds not only have a ton of climbing to do, they’ve got to do it against the really good clubs in the game more often than anyone else.
I don’t want to damn them just yet, but that’s pretty damning. It’s hard to see even the returns of Austin Hays and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario getting lost on the train and ending up at Wrigley on the Cubs roster, and even the promotion of Sal Stewart and Chase Burns changing the direction of things.
Maybe Terry Francona still has an ace up his sleeve. Maybe that ace is Matt McLain, who might magically morph back into the budding superstar he was for a bright moment two full years ago (in a small sample with a hilariously high BABIP) and lead the team to a miraculous turnaround mid-season.
Maybe Nick Krall makes a trade for a legitimate power hitter and not just another handful of dudes who are ‘line drive hitters in this ballpark,’ something he’s harped on dating back to the 2022 season.
Maybe, though, we’re reaching the realistic point of the season where we once again get to acknowledge publicly that things aren’t working and the future is once again where we turn our eyes.
(Remember when the Reds were 10 games over .500 and in first place in the NL Central at the trade deadline in 2023?)