The Cincinnati Reds have won the first two games of this series and they’ll look to pick up a third win tonight against the Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati has eight games remaining in the regular season and enters the day two games back of the final wild card spot. This evening’s first pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET.
Starting Lineups
Chicago Cubs |
Cincinnati Reds |
| Michael Busch – 1B | TJ Friedl – CF |
| Nico Hoerner – 2B | Spencer Steer – 1B |
| Ian Happ – LH | Gavin Lux – DH |
| Moises Ballesteros – DH | Austin Hays – LF |
| Dansby Swanson – SS | Will Benson – RF |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong – CF | Elly De La Cruz – SS |
| Matt Shaw – 3B | Tyler Stephenson – C |
| Willi Castro – RF | Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B |
| Reese McGuire – C | Matt McLain – 2B |
| Javier Assad – RHP | Zack Littell – RHP |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB | K |
| Zack Littell | 177.0 | 3.86 | 1.11 | 29 | 123 |
| Javier Assad | 27.2 | 4.23 | 1.30 | 9 | 15 |
| Links: Zack Littell’s Stats | Javier Assad’s Stats |
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Zack Littell
Since joining the Reds at the trade deadline, Zack Littell has struggled to find consistency from outing to outing. Two starts ago he allowed two runs in 6.0 innings, but in the two starts that bookend it he allowed nine earned runs in 10.0 innings. He faced the Cubs in his first start with Cincinnati and allowed a run in 7.0 innings back on August 5th.
The splits against Littell this season aren’t huge but they do exist. Right-handed hitters are hitting for a higher average and that carries over to a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage. But righties also hit for a tad more power when they do get hits, too. Left-handed hitters are walking more often against him.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 388 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 20 | 13 | 66 | .258 | .292 | .471 |
| LHH | 332 | 74 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 57 | .238 | .276 | .424 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-seam | 2-seam | Slider | Split | |
| Velo | 92.1 | 91.3 | 85.9 | 83.3 |
| Usage | 23% | 16% | 33% | 28% |
Javier Assad
The season for Javier Assad has mostly been lost due to an oblique injury he suffered in spring training. He didn’t make his first non-rehab appearance of the year until August 12th and he’s made five starts and one relief appearance since then for the Cubs. He has only pitches twice since the start of September and thrown just 7.2 innings.
Only looking at his big league splits this season, he’s had very big splits. But the sample size is also very small. That said, lefties hit for more average and hit for a ton more power. Righties walk a lot more but hit for no power.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 70 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | .254 | .357 | .322 |
| LHH | 46 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | .279 | .326 | .558 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-sm | 2-sm | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 91.9 | 92.0 | 88.9 | 76.2 | 80.9 | 85.2 |
| Usage | 12% | 42% | 21% | 6% | 16% | 4% |
When and Where
- Game time: 6:40pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: FanDuel Sports Network, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 84°, partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain
News and Notes
The playoff chase
When the day began the Reds were two games behind the New York Mets for the final wild card spot. They were one game up on Arizona, who trails New York by three games. The Mets are currently playing and trailing 3-0 heading to the 5th inning as I type this. Arizona won’t play until later tonight.
Wild Card Standings
With the division firmly out of reach, we are switching to the Wild Card standings for the rest of the season.
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Chicago | 88 | 66 | +8.0 | 100% |
| San Diego | 83 | 71 | +3.0 | 99.7% |
| New York | 80 | 74 | 0.0 | 89.2% |
| Cincinnati | 78 | 76 | 2.0 | 9.5% |
| Arizona | 77 | 77 | 3.0 | 1.3% |
| Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | ||||
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