The Cincinnati Reds are tied for 3rd place in the National League Central. They are trailing the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers by 8.5 games. It seems unlikely that they’re going to be able to catch either of those teams – who are tied for the best record in Major League Baseball. But the Reds, even as they’ve lost two in a row to the lowly Washington Nationals to start this week, are just 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. They have obvious needs, though. ESPN’s Jeff Passan identifies those needs as an outfielder and relievers.
His expectation, though, is that they don’t really address those needs and instead hope for magic. Yes, really. Magic. From Passan:
So as much as a bold move would behoove the Reds, they’re likelier to go the half-measure route, operating on the periphery of the bat and relief markets through incremental upgrades and hoping that Terry Francona can sprinkle his pixie dust downstate the same way he did in Cleveland for more than a decade.
There’s a lot to unwrap in this one sentence, but let’s start off by saying that it sounds an awful lot like the Cincinnati front office’s approach for a long time now – let’s hope something unexpected can happen.
But the second point here is that if Terry Francona’s magic pixie dust actually worked then the Reds wouldn’t need for his magic pixie dust to work at the trade deadline, right? If it worked then Cincinnati wouldn’t need to go out and find a bat and some relievers because the bad ones they have would not be bad. But they are. Because magic pixie dust isn’t real.
Cincinnati’s farm system is quite top heavy. They have the pieces to make a trade for a big time player if they want to. But the trade deadline of the past few years has actually seen very few high-end prospects actually moved. Last year there wasn’t a single Top 100 prospect in baseball moved in a deal.
That tells us two things. First, teams are hesitant to move prospects. The Reds fit that bill. But also it tells us that if you ARE willing to trade a high-end prospect that you can probably get anyone who is going to actually be traded at the deadline.
It seems pretty clear that the chances that Cincinnati is going to keep Elly De La Cruz around beyond his arbitration years and slim and none. And at least right now, the Reds have good starting pitching. If now isn’t the time to “go for it” then you’re never going to get there. You’ve got a star player who is making the league minimum right now. The window with, in theory, a healthy Hunter Greene, Elly De La Cruz, and the supporting cast that includes Andrew Abbott – who has been dominant this year – and a guy like Chase Burns who clearly has the upside to be an elite pitcher even if he’s not there yet is right now.
Cincinnati’s front office has talked about avoiding peaks and valleys, but isn’t a peak a good thing? Like you want to peak and win a championship. Avoiding valleys is good. But it’s only good if there is a realistic hope for peaks. Simply winning 84 games a year isn’t, or at least shouldn’t be the goal.
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