The Cincinnati Reds have officially completed the first half of their 2025 schedule. They are 42-39 through 81 games. There have been ups, downs, injuries, surprises, and disappointments. Let’s take a look back at the first half and discuss some things.
The Record
It’s better to have a winning record than a losing record. Cincinnati is 42-39 and they are 5.5 games out of first place in the division, trailing the 47-33 Cubs, 45-36 Brewers, and 44-37 Cardinals. The Reds are 2.5 games out of wild card race. Currently the Mets, Brewers, Padres, and Giants have the four spots up top.
How does a 42-39 record at the midpoint of the season stack up to the team in the last decade?
| W | L | % | |
| 2025 | 42 | 39 | .519 |
| 2024 | 38 | 43 | .469 |
| 2023 | 43 | 38 | .531 |
| 2022 | 28 | 53 | .346 |
| 2021 | 41 | 40 | .506 |
| 2020 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 38 | 43 | .469 |
| 2018 | 34 | 47 | .420 |
| 2017 | 35 | 46 | .432 |
| 2016 | 29 | 52 | .358 |
| 2015 | 37 | 44 | .457 |
This is only the third time since 2015 that the team has been at or above .500. This team is one game behind where the 2023 Reds were at the same point in the year, but better (and in some case, WAY BETTER) than the other teams.
The MVP
It has to be a 2-man question, right? It’s either Elly De La Cruz or it’s Andrew Abbott. We can start with where one should usually start and look at the WAR for each player. Baseball Reference has Abbott at 2.9 WAR and De La Cruz at 2.7 WAR. Fangraphs has Abbott at 1.9 WAR and De La Cruz at 2.6 WAR.
WAR is not a definitive stat. It’s a guide. It has multiple versions and each one seems to have it’s good and it’s not-so-good aspects of it. Overall it gives you a solid idea of a players value, but it does not give you a precise one even if some people one the internet like to tell you otherwise.
When it comes to this conversation between these two players I think that the argument can be made that Elly De La Cruz plays every day – literally – and can impact more games because of that. On the flip side, when Andrew Abbott has taken the mound he’s been beyond dominant nearly every time out and in those games he has a huge impact.
I would say to take your pick. I will lean slightly towards the position player on this one but I would take zero issue with anyone saying that they pick Andrew Abbott.
The Surprises (Good)
Jose Trevino was a glove first guy who was brought in to be a backup. He was thrust into the role as a starter for the first month when Tyler Stephenson went down with an injury and at this point he’s hit .298/.337/.490.
Andrew Abbott has been good for his career, but he’s been elite this season. He’s 7-1 in 13 starts and has an ERA of 1.79. Among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched this year that’s second best in baseball, trailing only Kodai Senga of the Mets (1.47 in 73.2 innings).
The Surprises (Not So Good)
Matt McLain is coming off of shoulder surgery, so the fact that he hasn’t exactly torn the cover off of the ball isn’t a big surprise. But the fact that he has been under the .200 mark without much power at all for most of the season is. A recent hot streak has him sitting at .200/.295/.336 in his 286 plate appearances. He’s played good defense, which has helped keep him in the lineup every day, but his bat has been among the worst in the game among every day players.
Spencer Steer is barely outhitting Matt McLain this year. He, too, has been dealing with shoulder issues. Unlike McLain he didn’t have surgery, but he also wasn’t healthy to begin the season. And until injuries basically forced the Reds hand, it seemed certain that he was going to begin the year on the injured list. Instead he served as the designated hitter and first baseman for much of the first half as he was unable to make any real throws. But that carried over to the plate, too, where he’s hitting .243/.296/.364 in 294 plate appearances.
The Reds are a good baserunning team. This year they are currently 9th in baseball in Fangraphs baserunning value at +1.3. But compared to last year, it’s an enormous step backwards. Given that we are at the midpoint of the season, that puts them on pace for +2.3 runs. Last season they finished at +15.6 runs, which was second in baseball – trailing just the Brewers (who are again at the top of the leaderboard at +12.1 this season).
The Strengths and Weaknesses
The pitching staff has been outstanding this year. As a whole, the Reds have an ERA+ of 117. ERA+ is adjusted for all of the ballparks pitched in, with 100 being league average. Their mark of 117 has them as the 4th best pitching staff in baseball, trailing just the Astros, Mets, and Royals.
Cincinnati’s offense has been below-average, posting an OPS+ of 94. That mark ranks the club as the 21st best offense in the game once adjusted for the ballparks they play in (this includes road games, too).
Defensively the Reds have been poor, at least according to Fangraphs defensive values. They rank 18th in baseball at -11.1 runs. That’s not too surprising given that on a daily basis the team probably has at least three guys playing out of position.
Overall Thoughts
When I made my preseason prediction I had the Reds finishing with 85 wins. That’s pretty much what they are on pace for. But they have gotten there in a way that I didn’t quite foresee. Elly De La Cruz has done his part, but much of the offensive contributions have come from more unexpected places outside of his. The pitching staff has been good thus far. But I feel like what I said about their health and making a real run at October holds true – they’re going to need good luck with regards to health when it comes to their stars to do it.
If they can get Hunter Greene back in July and he can stay on the mound the rest of the way, that would go a long way to helping the team out. Chase Burns coming up and taking a spot in the rotation could be another check mark in the favor of the club. But they’ll also likely need Austin Hays to get healthy, stay healthy, and continue hitting, and probably get someone who has struggled to really take a big step forward, too. At least if they want to be real contenders.
The post Cincinnati Reds 1st Half of 2025: The Breakdown appeared first on Redleg Nation.