So, here we sit at the All Star break. The topsy turvy Cincinnati Reds are at 50-47. They find themselves three teams and 7.5 games from their division lead, but just three teams and 3.0 games out of a wild card berth. With 65 games to go, what are the Reds prospects of making the playoffs?
Which Fork In The Road To Take?
Truth be told, the Reds road to a Central Division title is a long, uncertain, and likely futile path barring a major collapse by both the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers. Thus, the wild card is the path for the Reds to follow. Here is how the wild card scrum looks:
National League Wild Card Standings
| Division Leaders | W | L | PCT | WCGB |
| Dodgers | 58 | 39 | .598 | – |
| Cubs | 57 | 39 | .594 | – |
| Phillies | 55 | 41 | .573 | – |
| Wild Card | W | L | PCT | WCGB |
| Brewers | 56 | 40 | .583 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 55 | 42 | .567 | 2.5 |
| Padres | 52 | 44 | .542 | 0.0 |
| Giants | 52 | 45 | .536 | -0.5 |
| Cardinals | 51 | 46 | .526 | -1.5 |
| REDS | 50 | 47 | .515 | -2.5 |
| DBacks | 47 | 50 | .485 | -5.5 |
| Marlins | 44 | 51 | .463 | -7.5 |
The good news for the Reds is they are just three teams and 2.5 games from the final wild card team, the San Diego Padres. However, the Padres have a game in hand and three fewer losses than Cincinnati, which raises the bar to catch them.
Back on the positive side, the Reds lead the season series with the Padres 2-1. Thus, with a series win versus the Padres in August, they would pick up a game or even two, and the head to head tiebreaker versus San Diego.
The next team down the line from the Padres is the San Francisco Giants. The Reds and Giants season series is over. It was a 3-3 split. Cincinnati will have to make up the necessary ground on them by outplaying them against the league by three games, or just two, should the secondary tie breaker fall to the Reds favor.
Finally, the first team the Reds need to get by is none other than their despised rival, the St. Louis Cardinals. For all the angst Cincinnati fans have about playing the Cardinals, the 2025 series is only 4-3 in favor of the Cardinals. With six games remaining between the two teams, three in each city, the Reds are in control of their fate here.
A Steep Slope
The most daunting aspect of the Reds remaining schedule is the 28 games (43% of remaining games) versus the current top five National League playoff qualifying teams. The cumulative record of these teams at the All-Star break was 281-201 (.583 winning percentage). There is no soft spot to be found among them. Here’s the breakdown of those 28 games:
| Opponent | Home | Away | Total |
| Brewers | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Cubs | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Mets | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Phillies | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Total | 16 | 12 | 28 |
But wait!! As if the schedule against the top five National League teams in playoff positions isn’t enough challenge, the Reds also have three remaining games against Toronto, which is in an American League playoff spot.
Thankfully, Every Coin Has Two Sides
The flip side of the top heavy schedule above is that Cincinnati has 16 games left with teams currently in the bottom five of each league. However, seven of these games are with the Pirates, and we know too well the Reds sad recent history with the Bucs.
Fools’ Gold Or A Real Chance?
Do the Reds have a real chance to make the playoffs? Even the reviled Fangraphs odds give the Reds an ~11% chance. That’s at least a puncher’s shot.
If the Padres finish the season at their current winning percentage, the Reds would need 38 wins, a .585 winning percentage, after the break to catch them. Should the Padres play .500 baseball after the break, the Reds would need 35 additional wins after the break to catch them (.538 winning percentage), which seems attainable. But is it too much to expect the Padres will play only at .500 the rest of the season??
Because of those 28 games against the cream of the NL crop, achieving a .585 winning percentage the rest of the way may be a bridge too far for the Reds, unless they make a historic run to the wire.
Also, lest we forget, Cincinnati needs at a minimum to get ahead not only of the Padres but also the Cardinals and Giants. The Reds control their fate with the Cardinals, but will need help against the Giants.
Keep Aware of the Trailing Teams
Although the Reds have some breathing room behind them, both the Marlins and Diamondbacks have recently authored successful playoff runs against the odds. Just think back to 2023 if your memory is foggy.
Putting The Pieces Together
The Reds probably need to find a way to win at least 86 games. That calls for a .554 winning percentage over the rest of the season. They need to take out the Cardinals on their own and put some hurt on the New York Mets. They must dominate against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, and Athletics. A series win versus the Padres is also nearly imperative. Breaking even with the Cubs and Brewers is likely a prerequisite, too.
Still, when push comes to shove, the Reds will probably need some help from the top and bottom of the NL West. Hope for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies to pound on the Padres and Giants while the Diamondbacks play the same two roughly even. A similar effort by the Philadelphia Phillies at the top, along with the bottom of the NL East, against the Mets could also put the Mets wild card spot into play, although this may be a stretch to hope for.
If all this happens, this could be the year. What do you think?
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