The Cincinnati Reds are good. How do we know they are good? Because all of the following players have been hurt or underperformed for significant chunks of the season, and they still have a winning record: Hunter Greene, Matt McLain, Austin Hays, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Rhett Lowder, Jake Fraley, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and probably someone I’m forgetting.
So yes. The Reds are good. And now they are, except for Greene, healthy.
Time for ownership to make a choice. This team has a window. They have, at best, this year plus three more years before guys start to go elsewhere because ownership consists of a large group of cheap cowards. Elly De La Cruz is gonna go at some point (he shouldn’t, to be clear. The Reds should offer him 15 years and $600M or whatever it takes. He is a generational talent. But they will not do that.).
There is a window and here we are at the trade deadline. The Reds are not gonna go throw serious money around at free agents in the offseason. So they have to trade. For difference makers. Ideally, difference makers who will be around for a minute.
The Reds have problems at first base, designated hitter, left field, and right field.
Currently trying to hold down those spots, you have a group of guys who range from, “disappointing so far” to “just about out of chances.”
They are: Gavin Lux, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Jake Fraley, and (down in Louisville now) Christian Encarnacion-Strand. (I am deliberately ignoring Austin Hays since he’s certainly gone after this year and has been, you know, mostly hurt).
Those five players listed above have collectively accrued 0.3 WAR over 1,118 plate appearances as of this writing. Sure, some have been worse than others, but friends, that is not getting it done at all. And we might overlook WAR a little bit if someone was really mashing the ball, but of the group, only Lux and his 106 wRC+ is even passable for an offense-first position.
Still, Cincinnati needs to get something out of that group. They aren’t going to get four regulars on the trade market.
Lux and Fraley are gone after next year, so there’s no reason to count on them. Lux is a good bench guy to have and I won’t be shocked if Fraley is designated for assignment after this season.
I am out on Rece Hinds (he wasn’t in the initial list, but I can feel some of you getting ready to comment about him). I’d love to be proven wrong, but he looks so much like Aristides Aquino (only not as good) when he hits that I can’t take him seriously. Triple-A and MLB are not the same.
I feel similarly about Christian Encarnacion-Strand. I guess he could work out. But his back seems to be a long-term issue, and he has got to stop swinging at stuff out of the zone in the big leagues. As with Hinds, I no longer care what he does in Triple-A unless the coaches say they see a difference.
Steer is the candidate most likely to inspire phrases like, “He’s fine, I guess.” Having gotten about 1800 plate appearances at this point in his career, his 3.8 WAR tells us what we have. At peak, he’s average. If he’s not running on all cylinders, he’s not great. But a good team can hide him somewhere. Probably left.
Benson is, I think, the best bet to maybe be good. He has late-bloomer written all over him (think Justin Turner or Edwin Encarnacion). He’s clearly changed his approach and his expected stats for this year (something that matters given that he only has 174 plate appearances this season) think he’s been really unlucky. But the biggest indicator is that he’s cut his strikeouts in a meaningful way. He’s always walked (take notes Encarnacion-Strand and Rece Hinds) and he’s always had plenty of power. Add a little more contact and you’ve got something.
Which isn’t to say I think either Steer or Benson can really be counted on right now. It’s just that they are the most likely candidates and we’re trying to fill four spots.
Given that Benson doesn’t play against lefties, we have filled like 1.7 out of four spots.
In the minors, we have Sal Stewart who maybe is ready to really contribute next year. But he is just about to try Triple-A for the first time, so let’s not anoint him quiet yet. All the other offensive help is a serious beat away.
It is time to trade prospects. Serious prospects.
I am not joking.
If they are not on the big league roster right now, they are available. Period. Call up every team at the bottom or on their way down. Everyone who is in the “rebuild” phase. Offer them shiny, shiny pieces of the future and see what you can get. Aren’t you tired of waiting? I am. So go get someone who has at least another year of team control after this one. More, if you can get it. We can argue about the names, but they need to be quality names. They are out there. And it’s time to make it happen.
The Reds have been piddling around for too long. Right now, they aren’t extending most of their young core. And they aren’t making a genuine effort on the free agent market. So trade prospects. That’s the only way you’re going to get enough depth on the MLB roster to contend before the young core signs elsewhere.
The post It’s time for the Reds to trade the farm for winning today appeared first on Redleg Nation.