Through a year of frustrations, hope, and everything in between, the Cincinnati Reds are now in possession of the final Wild Card spot with six games remaining in the season. They have the same record as the flailing New York Mets (80 – 76), but they do hold the tiebreaker over them.
Most Important Stretch of Reds Baseball in Five Years Upcoming
The season is no longer a marathon, as it will conclude with a six-game sprint: three against Pittsburgh at home and three against Milwaukee on the road.
The standings are not set in stone, as not only are the Mets directly behind them, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are also one game back. With that, let’s see how the Cincinnati Reds have made this turnaround as of late, how they’ll look if they hold on to the postseason spot, and how they can keep it here in the final week of 2025.
Reds’ Abundance of Starting Pitching
The Reds have just come off a four-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs on the backs of their dominant pitching staff. Starter Hunter Greene missed a large part of the season due to an injury, but he has returned at the perfect time. He twirled an absolute gem last Thursday, shutting out the Cubs and only allowing one hit in a 1-0 win.
This was his second career complete-game shutout, and it was coming off the heels of a brutal five-run outing against the Athletics, where he failed to make it out of the third inning. It was a gutsy bounce-back performance for Greene, who will undoubtedly be spearheading this rotation come October.
On the season, he’s working on a 2.74 ERA in 101 2/3 innings, yet another spectacular year. After struggling in his first few seasons, the former top prospect has carved out a perfect number one role in the rotation with Cincinnati for years to come.
Lefty Andrew Abbott has been lights out as well, and is firmly penciled in as the number two starter behind Greene. His 2.80 ERA in 28 starts (161 IP) was the heartbeat of the rotation when Greene was absent. This creates a deadly one-two punch atop the rotation, something teams will be fearful of in a best-of-three Wild Card round.
Reds Bullpen
With their abundance of starting pitching, some talented arms have been shifted to the bullpen, such as Nick Martinez and, more notably, Chase Burns. Burns has struggled to begin his career after being taken in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft. However, a shortened workload, where he will be expected to pitch one or two innings of maximum effort, should work wonders for the Reds’ bullpen.
Closer Emilio Pagan has carried a heavy workload out of the back end of the bullpen all year, with 66 appearances at 34 years old. His 3.06 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 30.6 K% are all indications that the Reds can feel pretty comfortable with him taking the mound in the ninth in October.
Tony Santillan has also demonstrated the ability to close and is yet another viable late-inning arm for Terry Francona. He has appeared in a mind-bending 77 games this year, with a 2.42 ERA and 3.80 FIP in 70 2/3 innings.
Nick Martinez will be in the bullpen, although he is more of a swing guy. He has made 26 starts and 12 appearances out of the bullpen this year, resulting in a 4.54 ERA in 162 2/3 innings. He is, however, much more effective out of the bullpen with a 3.06 ERA as opposed to a 4.72 ERA as a starter. Martinez is a guy capable of being put into any situation and can handle multiple innings at a time, which will be highly beneficial come October.
Reds Offense
While the Reds’ offense is still not great, they have shown occasional flashes of putting it together and scoring just enough for their pitching staff to carry them to victories. Elly De La Cruz has suffered a massive second-half slump but has looked better as of late. Spencer Steer has seen yet another rather disappointing season at the plate with a 98 wRC+, but came up clutch in the Cubs series with three home runs. He is a guy who is more than capable of going on a hot stretch, and it seems like it’s arriving at the perfect time.
Noelvi Marte has looked like a genuine threat at the plate this year, although he himself has also been teetering at the plate lately. Still, he is a 108 wRC+ bat in the lineup. Leadoff hitter TJ Freidl is working on a fine season too, with his 105 wRC+ and impressive .360 OBP at the top of the lineup setting the table.
Reds Late Season Additions
Miguel Andujar, although he hasn’t played too much since being traded from the Athletics to the Reds due to nagging injuries, has been amazing. In 28 games since becoming a Red, he has slashed .349/.400/.566 for a .966 OPS and 164 wRC+, bringing some much-needed power.
Rookie top prospect Sal Stewart has done nothing but mash in the 15 games that he’s played so far. In 49 plate appearances, Stewart has four home runs and an .850 OPS, proving to be a legitimate threat in the middle of the order. Frustrations have been voiced about why he wasn’t called up sooner, and they are 100% valid, seeing as he is clearly big-league ready.
Another player who has received unusual playing time treatment is Will Benson, who was benched for essentially an entire month despite being one of the team’s best hitters. The hulking lefty has a 170 wRC+ in September, playing a huge part in Cincinnati’s current 10-5 stretch. While his numbers didn’t look too well before this, he was hitting the ball perhaps better than anyone, according to the metrics, and it is no surprise that he has turned it around here at the tail end of the season.
It is no coincidence that the Reds’ hot stretch has coincided with the usage of Will Benson and the call-up of Sal Stewart. The Reds are a lineup severely lacking power, and these two can bring just that.
Reds Upcoming Stretch
With the Pittsburgh Pirates heading into town this week, there will be no easy task. The Reds’ struggles against Pittsburgh have been well documented. They will also be facing the eventual NL Cy Young winner, Paul Skenes, in the Wednesday night game, although Cincinnati will be trotting out their own ace, Hunter Greene.
With three against Pittsburgh at home and three against Milwaukee in Milwaukee, it will be no easy task if the Reds want to hold onto that final Wild Card spot.
The New York Mets are facing the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins to conclude their season, hoping to salvage what has been a historic collapse.
It all comes down to these final six games. Will the Cincinnati Reds be able to capitalize on their situation and secure their first postseason appearance since 2020, or will they crumble under the pressure?
Main Photo Credits: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
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