This morning Mark Sheldon of MLB.com wrote about some of the potential trade targets he had been hearing about surrounding the Cincinnati Reds. There was of course mention of the interest the Reds (and nearly every other team in baseball) has in third baseman Eugenio Suarez. But then he also made mention of two relievers from Colorado, a third baseman with an OPS under .600, and a pitcher owed $65,000,000 over the next two seasons.
Let’s start with the pitching. Sonny Gray is owed $35,000,000 in 2026 and then $30,000,000 in 2027 – but there is a $5,000,000 buy out for that season. And there’s also the fact that he has a no trade clause – one that he’s told the Cardinals he isn’t all that likely to waive.
Gray has been solid this season, but not exactly good. He’s made 22 starts and thrown 121.1 innings this season. He’s also allowed more hits than innings pitched for the first time since 2016, has a 4.38 ERA (and a 95 ERA+, which makes him below average when adjusting for his park factors), and has allowed 15 home runs to go along with 20 walks and 133 strikeouts.
You can never have enough pitching. And Gray isn’t a bad target. But for a team who pinches pennies it’s tough to see them making the kind of financial commitment to a guy who is 35 and having his worst season in nearly a decade. Especially when pitching is nowhere near the biggest need of the team.
That brings us to what is the biggest need. Offense. So the question is why on Earth the club would be interested in bringing in Ke’Bryan Hayes from the Pittsburgh Pirates? Both his on-base percentage and his slugging percentage are under .300 this season. Both his on-base percentage and his slugging percentage were under .300 LAST SEASON, too.
Hayes is an elite level defensive player. The Reds could use an upgrade at third base when it comes to defense. But Hayes is a bench caliber player at best and he’s owed $7,000,000 in 2026 and 2027, and then $8,000,000 in 2028 and 2029, and then in 2030 he’s owed at least $6,000,000 for a buy out or $12,000,000 to keep him around. One of the worst hitters in baseball isn’t someone you should commit $36,000,000+ to simply to upgrade your benches defense.
Sheldon mentions both Jake Bird and Seth Halvorsen as Rockies relievers that the club has had some interest in. When it comes to ERA and ERA+, both guys are about league average. But with Colorado pitchers specifically it’s just tough to really know how well they will pitch once they get out of Colorado. Even when guys are on the road with them, studies have shown that there’s still some Colorado-related things happening – likely related to compensating a bit because of how they have to pitch while in Colorado with the thin air and what it does to their stuff. That might be one where you have to trust your scouts a little bit.
But what does seem fairly clear is that neither guy is a back of the bullpen type of guy and probably are more middle relief types. There’s nothing wrong with that – upgrades are upgrades. But is a marginal upgrade where the team should be focusing?
Eugenio Suarez would be a clear upgrade. A difference making move. He’s the kind of hitter you put in your lineup and it can change things. Sonny Gray has the potential to be a clear upgrade in a rotation, but he also isn’t a guy that is going to ever be a “stopper” because he’s pretty much limited to six innings on his very best days at this point in his career. He does give the club wiggle room to possibly move someone in the rotation into the bullpen, though, which would make for a good upgrade there, too. The other three guys? They don’t seem to move the needle at all.
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