27-year-old Cincinnati Reds lefty Nick Lodolo is entering his fourth MLB season, which could very well be his best to date. Other than Lodolo’s 3.66 ERA rookie season back in 2022, he has been underwhelming, especially considering his stuff that is seemingly unhittable. With his fourth season approaching, maybe there are signs that the 2019 draftee can put it all together and become an ace-caliber starter in Cincinnati for years to come.
Live BP Sunday in Goodyear Nick Lodolo v. Will Benson pic.twitter.com/LQTrkgNlHo
— Mike Petraglia (@Trags) February 16, 2025
Nick Lodolo Could Have a Breakout Season
Lodolo’s Under the Hood Stats Last Season
While Lodolo recorded the most amount of innings in his career in 2024, it still fell short of expectations for a starter. Limited by injury, he threw just 115 1/3 innings and posted a mediocre 4.76 ERA. However, his 3.72 xERA and 3.95 FIP suggest his numbers may have been inflated a bit.
Looking at his Baseball Savant page, it is evident that he had solid to above-average metrics in 2024, with multiple categories being above league average. Lodolo generated ground balls well, with a 44.9 GB% (63rd percentile), and also held walks at a respectable 7.5 BB% (57th percentile). Perhaps most impressively, he generated lots of swings and misses, with a 24.7 K% (64th percentile), 28.1 Whiff% (70th percentile), and a 30.2 Chase% (67th percentile).
A tall lefty with an across-the-body delivery who generates missed bats and ground balls at an above-league-average level is something the Reds pitching lab can continue to tinker with as he experiences more and more innings at the big-league level.
Struggles in 2024
Despite some good metrics, there is a specific area in Nick Lodolo’s game that he struggles with: opponent contact quality.
Opponents had an average exit velocity of 89.2 MPH, as well as an 8.2 Barrel%, which places him in the 39th percentile among qualified MLB pitchers in both metrics. His 38 Hard-Hit% places him in the 55th percentile, which is better than the prior two marks, but still improvable.
Lodolo struggled with this even in his 3.66 ERA rookie season. In that year, he was 26th percentile in Hard-Hit% (40.6%), 18th percentile in Barrel% (9.1%), and 45th percentile in opponent average exit velocity (88.7 MPH).
With these numbers slowly creeping towards league average as his career progresses, there is hope that this weakness in his game can be flipped to a strength in the future, and at worst a manageable level.
Notable Splits in 2024
Lefty-on-lefty is usually the most difficult matchup in baseball for hitters, and Lodolo dominated these matchups in 2024, as he surrendered a whopping zero home runs in these matchups.
He also tended to struggle out of the gate, surrendering 13 earned runs in 21 first innings (5.57 ERA). Despite the immediate slow start, he was rather decent against lineups in his first time through the order with a 3.94 ERA. However, as the game goes on and hitters see him more often, he begins to get knocked around, with a 5.09 ERA against the lineup the second time around, and a 4.91 ERA the third time through.
A final impressive stat with Lodolo was his success after getting ahead in the count. After going just 0-1 in the count, opponents slashed .178/.261/.278. While pitchers generally succeed more often when ahead in the count, Lodolo embodies the statement, “the best pitch for a pitcher is strike one”.
Can Lodolo Become a More Successful Big Leaguer?
It is difficult to predict Nick Lodolo’s 2025, party due to his small sample size of workload, but also due to the disparity of performance throughout it. Judging by his numbers and analytics, he should be able to flourish in the big leagues one day.
Photo Credit: © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
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