The Reds have reached out to free-agent right-hander Johnny Cueto about a potential reunion for the 2023 season, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Cueto was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this week.
Cueto, 37 in February, enjoyed a resurgent 2022 season with the White Sox, making his highest number of starts (24) since 2017 and logging the most innings he’s thrown in a season (158 1/3) since 2016. Signed to a minor league deal just prior to Opening Day 2022, Cueto began the season ramping up in Triple-A and ultimately totaled 174 innings between that minor league tune-up and a successful run with the ChiSox that saw him log a 3.35 ERA.
Granted, Cueto’s 15.7% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB, ranking 130th among the 140 pitchers who tossed at least 100 inning. However, Cueto’s 5.1% walk rate ranked 22nd in that same set of pitchers, and he was also comfortably in the top half of the league in terms of limiting hard contact; Statcast ranked his average exit velocity in the 69th percentile of MLB pitchers and his hard-hit rate in the 67th percentile. Despite pitching his home games at the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, Cueto averaged just 0.85 homers per nine frames. It’s true that he posted better results and allowed fewer homers on the road (2.84 ERA, 0.59 HR/9) than at home (3.83 ERA, 1.09 HR/9), but Cueto was a generally effective pitcher in both settings.
That ability to limit home runs, if the Reds feel he can sustain it moving forward, ought to hold appeal to Cincinnati brass. Great American Ball Park, the Reds’ home stadium, has been far and away the most homer-friendly stadium in all of MLB over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s park factors, producing long balls at 50% greater than a league-average rate. Guaranteed Rate Field, Cueto’s aforementioned home environs as a member of the White Sox, ranks a distant second.
Whether Cueto or another veteran innings eater, the Reds could quite clearly use some stability in a rotation that’ll be composed entirely of unproven MLB starters. Prospects Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all made their big league debuts in 2022 and appear ticketed for rotation jobs in 2023, and all three held their own.
Greene, a former No. 2 overall draft pick and one of the game’s consensus top prospects heading into the season, logged a 4.44 ERA in 125 2/3 frames while fanning 30.9% of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Home runs were an issue (1.72 HR/9), but he’s a clearly exciting arm around which to build. Similar things can be said about Lodolo, another top-tier prospect who tossed 103 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball with a 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. He missed nearly three months with a back injury but was impressive when healthy. Ashcraft didn’t carry the same fanfare on national prospect rankings but was regarded as one of the organization’s better arms and managed 105 innings of 4.89 ERA ball, relying more heavily on plus ground-ball (54.5%) and walk (6.5%) rates than on missing bats (15.3% strikeout rate).
Beyond that solid young trio, options are sparse. Longtime Yankees reliever Luis Cessa appears ticketed for a starting gig with the Reds, who acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline. Cessa moved from the bullpen to the rotation late in 2022 and pitched to a 3.77 ERA with a 18.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 43% grounder rate and 1.67 HR/9 in 43 innings in that role.
Looking further down the list, righties Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are potential rotation options, while prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could get a look in next year’s rotation. Each of Dunn, Williamson and Stoudt were acquired in trades with the Mariners — the former two in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker, the latter as part of the Luis Castillo swap. Dunn missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury and posted a 6.10 ERA when healthy, however, while Williamson walked 13.9% of his opponents and pitched to a 4.11 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. Stoudt only reached Triple-A for his final 19 innings but posted a combined 4.70 ERA in 111 minor league frames.
The Reds currently project for a payroll of just $73MM, with much of that money earmarked for veterans Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas in the final seasons of their respective multi-year contracts. There ought to be ample space to add a veteran in the Cueto mold, but Cincinnati hasn’t spent more than $7.5MM on any free agent since signing Nick Castellanos in Jan. 2020 and it remains to be seen just how much they’ll be willing to commit to free agents this winter. Thus far, catcher Luke Maile’s $1.175MM deal is the Reds’ lone free-agent addition.