The Cincinnati Reds rotation is easily the best group on their team. In fact, in 2025 the Reds pitching staff as a whole led Major League Baseball in ERA+ (which is ERA after adjustments made for the ballparks everyone pitched in throughout the year, scaled to 100 being league average). Essentially, that means that the Reds pitching staff prevented runs better than any team in baseball last season once we account for park factors. A lot of the pitchers from that staff are returning and the pitching is once again expected to be a strength. But despite multiple All-Stars returning, it’s Chase Burns who projects to be the best pitcher on the staff when it comes to preventing runs.
The latest projection system to be released as we inch closer and closer to spring training is OOPSY. Yes, that’s what it’s called. I don’t make up the names. Like the other projection systems we’ve seen come out, Chase Burns has the lowest ERA among Cincinnati Reds pitchers. The OOPSY projections are a lot lower across the board when it comes to ERA than others, with Burns coming in with a 3.07 ERA. That just bests the projection for Hunter Greene and his 3.13 ERA. Greene, though, still winds up the Reds most valuable pitcher thanks to his 183.0 innings pitched in the projection when compared to the 130.0 for Burns.
In the Steamer projections Burns tops the list with a 3.74 ERA and with 132.0 innings pitched. Once again that bests Hunter Greene and a 3.94 ERA in 183.2 innings. The BAT projections have Burns with a 3.88 ERA in 115.2 innings, while Greene is next at 3.95 in his 179.0 innings. Greene remains the most valuable pitcher in both of those projections, too, due to the difference in innings pitched.
Just how good does OOPSY think that Chase Burns and Hunter Greene will be? Very. Among pitchers with a projected 100.0 innings pitched or more, Burns has the 5th best ERA in baseball – trailing just Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, and Shohei Ohtani. Greene is just three spots back. Two pitchers in the top eight in terms of ERA out of 188 pitchers projected for 100.0 or more innings.
While other projection systems also like Burns and Greene, they don’t rank nearly as high in the ERA department as they do with the OOPSY projection. The BAT projection has Burns at 32 and Greene at 38. Steamer had Burns at 31 and Greene at 55.
For Burns it would be a big jump for him in terms of ERA. Last year as a rookie he threw 43.1 innings and had an ERA of 4.57. That came along with five home runs allowed, 16 walks, and 67 strikeouts as he fanned 35.6% of the hitters he faced in 2025 for Cincinnati. His second start was disastrous. He allowed five earned runs in 0.1 innings against Boston in a game in which the Red Sox seemed to know he was tipping his pitches and teed off on him. In the next 11 games – some of which came as a reliever after he returned from the injured list in the middle of September – he posted a 3.32 ERA in 38.0 innings.
Burns, the #2 overall draft pick in 2024 out of Vanderbilt (and before that he pitched at Tennessee), didn’t spend too much time in the minor leagues and got to the big leagues in late June. Outside of that start in Boston he looked like he belonged in just about every way.
At least on paper, he’s in competition for a spot in the rotation as he heads into spring training. Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott have been named to the National League All-Star team over the last two seasons (Greene in 2024, Abbott in 2025). Brady Singer made every start last season and led the team in innings pitched. Nick Lodolo made it through the year mostly healthy and pitched in 29 games and threw 156.2 innings with a 3.33 ERA. Those guys all appear to have their spots locked in if they’re healthy.
Burns looks like he’s going to have to earn his spot in the rotation and he’s probably going to have to beat out 2023’s 1st round pick Rhett Lowder. He missed the entire season with multiple injuries, but in 2024 he made six starts with a 1.17 ERA for the Reds over the final month of the season. Chase Petty, Julian Aguiar, and Brandon Williamson are likely going to need things to go perfectly to make the rotation out of Arizona but they likely will at least be given an early look in Goodyear.
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