“He could throw that speedball by you, make you look like a fool, boy”
Every time Hunter Greene climbs the mound, I hum a little Springsteen and say a silent “thank you” to the Minnesota Twins. In 2017, they took Royce Lewis with the first pick in the draft, allowing Greene to fall to the Reds. How has that worked out so far? Soft-tissue injuries that have landed Lewis on the IL four different times have Twinks fans wondering if—given he financial outlays already made to Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton—a commitment to Lewis might be a mistake. And given the Pohlad family’s recent retrenchment in team payroll, the organization spins in place to the dismay of its fan base.
There was a fair amount of discussion surrounding the decision to grab the phenom high-schooler over a position player, just as there was last season when the Reds selected a hard throwing Wake Forest hurler as their first pick for the second year in a row, taking Chase Burns instead of power-hitting outfielder Charlie Condon, a move that some criticized, given the Reds offensive woes.
You need not be an expert at Tasseography to divine what the Reds are up to. Building from within means building pitching first and foremost as it’s the most expensive part of the game, the part the Reds cannot afford to build via free agency, as the Baltimore Orioles recently found out when they traded for Corbin Burnes but couldn’t retain him in free agency despite a $45M average annual value offer totaling $180M.
The Reds recent opponent, the Baltimore Orioles are in some ways a mirror image of the Reds. Farm-to-table built. Limited payroll. While the Reds have been busy developing pitching, the O’s have built from the other side, each now searching for what the other has.
Given ownership’s edict to build from within, trading for offensive support is problematic. Even middling forays into the free agent market are expensive and the most expensive is free agent pitching, which is why it’s hard to see Nick Krall getting the green light to trade from the farm system’s strength, knowing that ownership will never green-light free agent acquisitions with price tags the likes of Burnes, Max Fried, or Blake Snell.
Greene is on his way to proving he is just as valuable as those high-priced hurlers at a fraction of the cost. His latest injury was just another reminder that like time and pie, you can’t have too much pitching.
Ownership and the front office put the lion’s share of their eggs in the basket of a highly-rated farm system and players inherited from the last teardown to build from within. Payoff has been forthcoming on the pitching side. It’s the other side that has been maddeningly inconsistent.
Want to know why Matt McLain is struggling after missing a year of facing major league pitchers? Simple. We’ve seen this movie before.
A swimming pool accident that necessitated surgery to repair torn cartilage in Eugenio Suárez’s shoulder resulted in Geno suffering his worst season with the Reds. It would take a full season of competing and relearning at the highest level to trust his repaired shoulder.
Some had questions about Tyler Stephenson after concussions, a broken thumb and a fractured collarbone swept him away from the diamond. It took a lost season in 2023 before he returned to form in 2024 to be the second most productive player at the plate behind Elly De La Cruz.
Gavin Lux missed the Dodgers’ 2023 season with a torn ACL in his right knee. He spent the first half of 2024 struggling with a slash line of .213/.267/.295 with a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 60. In the second half of the season, Lux took off, his line exploding, .304/.390/.508, and a wRC+ of 152.
Given what McLain has shown as a major league hitter, it’s not much of a stretch to see him returning to form once he finds his footing against the best pitchers in the world.
Among nearly everyday players, De La Cruz has had a slumping start to the season, but his floor is high and his ceiling is through the roof. TJ Friedl has held his own, as have two of Nick Krall’s very productive pickups, Lux and Jose Trevino.
Noelvi Marte and Austin Hays have been productive—when they’ve been on the field, which has not been enough to make a real impact. Same for Spencer Steer, who at best is a steady, but unspectacular piece of the puzzle when healthy.
The bets on Christian Encarnacion Strand, Jeimer Candelario and Will Benson have been failures to date.
The canary in the coal mine is Santiago Espinal, who is having a nice run, but is not an everyday player. The more he plays, the more he is likely to be exposed. He plays because of the issues above and the lack of other options. Blake Dunn, Rece Hinds and Jacob Hurtubise are not the depth you’re looking for. The recent acquisition of Connor Joe is little more than spackle to cover a wall of holes in the offense because of the decision not to significantly increase payroll in the off-season.
The Reds play in a ballpark built for power. They suffer a distinct disadvantage there. They don’t hit for power and at 37.2%, the pitching staff has the worst ground ball percentage in baseball. This team is simply not built for the home they play in as currently constructed.
If ownership will not spend, the only avenue to improve the offense beyond waiting for the key players to heal and a couple of players to begin living up to their potential is to trade from perceived starting pitching depth. But does that exist?
Can the Reds afford to send one or both of the Chase boys away in a deal for a bigger bat come July? Hunter Greene’s speedball is fooling nobody from the IL. Pitching injuries always lurk around the corner in a game that values velocity above all else and elbows and shoulders that bear the weight of that bargain. Again, pitching is too expensive for the Castellini-led Reds, who insist on shopping at Dollar General and waiting for the stars on the field to align.
Fans remain back where they’ve been before: Wimpy’s bargain. “I’ll pay you tomorrow for a hamburger today.”
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